Reviewing the 2023-24 Season: The Blue Jackets were doomed from the beginning

Previously: October; November, December, January, February, March

Coming off of a surprisingly competent 2021-22 season, the first under new coach Brad Larsen, and with the addition of major free agent signing Johnny Gaudreau, expectations were high for 2022-23. Instead, the Columbus Blue Jackets finished as the second-worst team in the entire league at 59 points, 22 points lower than 2021-22. It was a massive disappointment, but there were two silver linings: over 500 games lost to injury meant the record wasn’t a true reflection of the talent on paper (when healthy), and the poor finish meant the chance to pick an elite prospect at the top of the draft.

Major changes came again in the off-season, with the replacement of Larsen with Cup-winning head coach Mike Babcock. Niklas Backstrom was brought in as goalie coach to help return Elvis Merzlikins to glory, and develop Daniil Tarasov. Veterans Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson added much-needed depth and experience to the blue line, while #3 overall pick Adam Fantilli brought skill to the center position that had been missing since the trade of Pierre-Luc Dubois.

Things went immediately south just a week before the start of training camp, when new allegations of player mistreatment surfaced against Babcock, who had been away from pro hockey for 4 years due to similar allegations. It was the right call to move on from him then, but it also revealed a critical lack of oversight in hiring him in the first place. As a result, camp began with set of second choices on the bench: Pascal Vincent, retained from Larsen’s staff, was promoted to head coach on short notice. Mark Recchi took Vincent’s assistant role, and did so after preseason was underway. Steve McCarthy was another hold-over from Larsen’s staff, and himself was a September promotion to the defensive assistant position in 2021.

They say insanity is doing the same thing multiple times and expecting different results, and therefore it was crazy to think that the assistants on the staff responsible for the 2021-23 results would produce anything dramatically different in 2023-24. The Blue Jackets finished with 66 points, a mere 7 point improvement (2 wins, 3 overtime losses). Larsen was fired with an average record of 31-43-8. Vincent’s record was 27-43-12. The extra overtime losses reveal this season’s team’s knack for blowing leads in the third period.

Record in games ending in regulation:
2021-22: 26-38
2022-23: 15-48
2023-24: 21-43

Record in games ending in OT/SO:
2021-22: 11-7
2022-23: 10-9
2023-24: 6-12

What about the underlying numbers? Has there been any progress? Actually, a little bit across the board:

This was the best possession team among the last 3 CBJ squads, but the goal scoring numbers are way lower than they should be given the offensive talent available. There’s no excuse for the power play to still be that atrocious.

Most importantly, the gains from last year’s debacle don’t make up for the fact that the improvement over 2021-22 is so marginal. If we’re back to where we were at this point in 2022, then what were the last two seasons for? It feels like a waste.

Needs Improvement

Leadership/Culture

All of this lead to the dismissal of Jarmo Kekalainen as general manager back in February, after 11 years on the job. Now the pressure is on John Davidson to find the right person to guide this franchise into the future. It is critical that an outside voice is brought in who can bring a fresh perspective to every aspect of how this organization runs. There are good pieces here to build around, but under Jarmo those pieces never seemed to fit together, nor did they align with the systems run by the coaching staff.

The question of leadership applies across the board: from ownership and team president Mike Priest, to Davidson as head of hockey operations, to the new GM and possibly new head coach, all the way into the locker room. Are the right players wearing letters on their chest? Could some of the young players step forward and make their voice heard next season?

Injuries

This year wasn’t as bad as last year, but there were still over 300 man games lost to injury. Many of these piled up in the last two months of the season, which meant icing multiple lines of AHL players, right as the schedule got way more difficult. The monthly stats show where the decline happens, with those underlying numbers:

The new GM should take a look at the training and medical staff, as well. I’m not convinced that they’re the problem, since so many of the injuries are the kind of thing that happen in a contact sport, and can’t really be prevented. That doesn’t mean it’s not worth trying something new.

One thing that can’t be avoided are some of the non-injury absences. Patrik Laine missed the back half of the season after entering the Player Assistance Program. Boone Jenner avoided the back injury that had ended his previous two seasons prematurely, but instead sat out the last 9 games due to a family tragedy.

Three Stars

Let’s end on a positive note, shall we?

Honorable Mention: Adam Fantilli

I can’t justify giving Fantilli a star since he only played 49 games, but for a 19 year old rookie, he looked pretty damn good in that time. Even with the time missed, he was 11th on the team in points and tied for 6th in goals scored. He was scoring at a 45 point pace prior to his injury. If he can stay healthy next season, look for him to at least match that. Let’s also see if he can get more time centering the top line, with elite wingers, than he did this season.

Honorable Mention: Daniil Tarasov

An 8-11-3 record, .908 save percentage, and 3.18 goals against average aren’t outstanding, but it’s an improvement for a team that has been seeking some stability in net since Sergei Bobrovsky left. This was Tarasov’s biggest workload at the NHL level, and he got better and more confident as the season went on. Unfortunately injury issues remain a red flag just as they were in his draft year, and most seasons since then.

Third Star: Cole Sillinger

It’s crazy to think that Sillinger already has 220 NHL games under his belt, but doesn’t turn 21 until next month. After a disastrous sophomore season, which saw him demoted to the AHL, Sillinger returned to form in year 3. While his point totals are similar to his rookie season, he was way more noticeable on both ends of the ice, and seemed to elevate whichever teammates were on his line. He earned more ice time as the season went on. He isn’t needed to be a 1C now that Fantilli is here, but there’s evidence he can be the solid middle 6 center that any aspiring contender needs.

Second Star: Dmitri Voronkov

The 6’5″, 240 lb power forward made an immediate impact in his first season in North America. Not only did he make his physical presence felt (which we expected), he showed may more skill than the scouting reports had advertised. His 18 goals rank 5th among rookies this season, and that’s despite him averaging just 13:27 per game (as compared to 19:47 for Connor Bedard or 15:49 for Logan Cooley).

Note that I’ve listed 3 centers in this section who are 23 years old or younger. For the first time since a few months late in the 2018-19 season, we have genuine depth AND skill at the center position.

First Star: Zach Werenski

Man, was it good to have Z back. He missed most of last season to a shoulder injury and was rusty to start this season, but ended up finishing second on the team in assists and points, and tied a franchise record for points by a defenseman. The other? Seth Jones in 2017-18, when he finished 4th in Norris voting. Z probably won’t end up on any ballots this year, but maybe he should? He’s in the top 12 among NHL defensemen in assists and points, and 6th in even strength points (tied with Victor Hedman, among others). Most impressive, he managed a +/- rating of 0, which says a lot on this particular CBJ team. No other regular on the team was positive.