Reviewing January 2024: Better play, worse results

Previously: October; November, December

Results

L 1-4 vs. BOS
W 3-2 (SO) @ PHI
L 3-4 (OT) vs. MIN
L 0-5 @ WPG
L 4-7 vs. SEA
W 4-3 (SO) vs. VAN
L 1-4 vs. NJD
L 1-4 @ EDM
W 5-2 @ CGY
L 4-5 (OT) @ VAN
L 2-4 @ SEA
W 1-0 @ STL

Right on pace, as the Columbus Blue Jackets continue to average 4 wins a month. Yeah, I don’t think a 26-win pace is going to cut it. Though if we can manage 4 wins in the 9 games of February, that will be quite an improvement!

Going 2-2-1 on a tough western road trip is probably a best case scenario, but another blown third period lead in Vancouver stings.

Standings

With Ottawa’s overtime win on Wednesday, the Blue Jackets finally fall to last place in the East, as they both have 42 points but the Senators still have 3 games in hand. In the race for Macklin Celebrini, the Western Conference triangle of tragedy (San Jose, Chicago, Anaheim) remains a clear step ahead of the Jackets. The 30th place Ducks are 6 points behind the Jackets.

Stats

I was honestly stunned to see that the Jackets were a positive possession team this month. It never felt like they were controlling games that much. Last month, their underlying numbers were bad but they used the power play to steal some wins. This month, the underlying play at even strength is much better, but there is no puck luck to be found (except for the Calgary game).

A big problem is how the shooting touch seemed to vanish completely. That reared its ugly head at both 5v5 and in the power play, which returned to mediocrity after a red-hot December. The penalty kill remained atrocious, with goals surrendered in 8 of the 12 games in January (for 12 allowed overall). Over a quarter of the goals allowed were on the kill.

Three Stars

Honorable Mention: Johnny Gaudreau and Zach Werenski

7 points in 12 games is a regression for Gaudreau, but still good enough to lead the team. All were assists, which shows that he’s creating chances for his teammates, but they’re not converting enough of them. Werenski only played 4 games after returning from injury, but already put up 3 points and had a +3 rating. He’s a steady presence and it’s great to have him back.

Third Star: Cole Sillinger

In January, Sillinger got his chance to be a top line center. It’s nice to see him rediscover his scoring touch, with 4 goals, but all season he’s been contributing away from the puck. He was +2 and had a 57.47 xGF% at 5v5.

Second Star: Dmitri Voronkov

Vronk continues to overperform his expected goal rate, but this month it was up to 54.18%. He is no longer playing with his countrymates full time, but he has shown he can produce with anyone. He’s a rare bright spot on the power play, with 2 of the team’s 5 goals for the month (Marchenko also had 2 and Sillinger had 1). He led the team in total goals, with 5.

In the Calder Trophy race, Vronk is tied with Fantilli for third place in goals (12) and is tied with Logan Cooley for sixth in points (25). With Bedard and Fantilli both out with injuries, the race is wide open and Voronkov has a chance to challenge Brock Faber and Marco Rossi of Minnesota.

First Star: Yegor Chinakhov

The Seattle game on Sunday was representative of what Chinakhov can be. The whole team was gassed and weren’t creating much of anything after quickly going down 3-0 in the first period. So, in the third, Chinakhov took it upon himself to get the team back in the game, and created two goals mostly by himself.

He has 14 goals and has a real shot at 30 if he can stay healthy. He has 24 points in 39 games, which is almost enough to eclipse the 27 points he had through his first two seasons (in 92 total games)

Needs Improvement

Penalty Kill

Seriously, it was so good in November, so how has it been so bad since then? Obviously opponents have figured something out. Remind me why Steve McCarthy has managed to stick around for a third season, and got contract extensions in each of the last two off-seasons?

Lost stars

Patrik Laine was nearing the point where he should have returned from his clavicle injury, but has entered the NHLPA Player Assistance Program. Mental health is as important as physical health, so we applaud Patty for seeking help, and wish him a speedy recovery. His old roommate Adam Fantilli took a skate to the back of ankle in Seattle, which has been diagnosed as a laceration of the calf muscle. He was wearing a kevlar sock, so this actually could have been way, way worse. Still, he’s going to be out for 8 weeks. That means he may only play another 8-12 games this season. What a bummer. He’s been one of the bright spots of an otherwise rough season.

“What we have here is a failure to communicate”

This month included two very public displays of frustration from players, and a clear lack of communication and a coherent plan from management and the coaching staff. First, it was Elvis Merzlikins upset about being relegated to third goaltender status for a period of over two weeks. It seems that the issue may have been cleared up, and a trade request was NOT made. He is getting more frequent appearances since then, and earned a shutout victory in the last game before the break.

The other blow-up happened with quotes delivered by David Jiricek to Aaron Portzline. Jiricek was told in the fall to get an apartment in Columbus, which would indicate that he’s a full-time NHLer. Instead, he has been sent back to the AHL three times since then, including once a week after that conversation. Quotes from John Davidson, Jarmo Kekalainen, and Pascal Vincent all indicate that they feel Jiricek is not playing at an NHL level at the moment. Since December 1, he has the fifth best xGF% among CBJ defensemen. The guy who is taking his spot, Andrew Peeke, is 6 percentage points lower. In 17 games, Jiricek was on ice for just 8 goals against at 5v5, vs. 10.59 expected goals against. None of the other regulars allowed fewer, and only Adam Boqvist had fewer expected goals allowed. On a per 60 minute basis (because Jiricek’s minutes were low), he trailed just Erik Gudbranson (yes, that’s right) in GA/60 (1.9 and 1.92) and Gudbranson and Jake Bean in xGA/60 (2.15, 2.36, 2.54). Peeke, meanwhile, allowed 3.71 GA/60 vs. 3.04 xGA/60.

Both the stats and the eye test are clear that Jiricek deserves to play at the NHL level, and the only ones that don’t see that are the ones who actually get to control where and when he plays.

The roster mismanagement and the PR disasters have drawn a significant amount of negative attention and have turned the fans against Jarmo and Co. for good. How long is this situation sustainable?