Reviewing December 2023: Worse play, better results

Previously: October; November

Results

W 4-2 vs. OTT
L 1-3 @ BOS
L 3-4 (OT) vs. LAK
L 3-7 @ NYI
W 5-2 vs. STL
L 2-5 vs. FLA
W 6-5 (OT) @ TOR
L 3-6 vs. NJD
W 9-4 @ BUF
L 2-3 (OT) vs. WSH
L 1-4 vs. TOR
L 3-4 (OT) @ NJD
W 6-5 (OT) vs. TOR
L 2-3 @ BUF

Hey, it’s a month at hockey .500 (5-5-4)! Also an increase in wins over last month, in one fewer game played. And yet, it could have been better. In three of the four OT losses, the Blue Jackets entered the third period with a lead. That doesn’t include the first Toronto game, where the Jackets won in OT only after blowing a FIVE goal lead in the third period.

Standings

Columbus, not surprisingly, remains in dead last in the Metro division, eight points behind Washington, New Jersey, and Pittsburgh (lol Pens). We’re still four points up on Ottawa, but they still somehow have six points in hand. Anaheim, Chicago, and San Jose are all below the worst Eastern teams.

By goal differential, Montreal is -23 to the Jackets’ -21, but has three more standings points. Chicago’s -50 and San Jose’s -78 are well below the next closest (Anaheim’s -29).

Stats

First, the good news: the power play has finally started figuring things out, and the 5v5 puck luck is in our favor as shown by the shooting and save percentages. The bad news: the possession numbers have gotten worse each month and are dangerously close to last season’s levels. The goals allowed number combined with the better save percentage shows that the defense is allowing way more shots than before.

The ugly: holy crap, what the heck happened to the penalty kill? More on that below.

Three Stars

Third Star: Yegor Chinakhov

Last month, both Kirill Marchenko and Dmitri Voronkov were included in this section. Now, it’s time to show some love to the third member of the Troika. Chinny was third on the team in points for December, with 12. Even more impressive is that he started the month with four scoreless games, so those 12 points came in just 10 games between 12/8 and 12/30. That included a six-game point streak during which the team went 3-2-1.

He has already set career highs for goals and points, and in just 27 games. I’m going to hesitate on saying “he’s arrived” because he could be streaky like many shoot-first players are, but it does feel like something has clicked and he has gained a lot of confidence.

Second Star: Johnny Gaudreau

I think we can stop worrying about Johnny Hockey. After a slow start to the season, in December he led the team with a point-per-game scoring pace (4/10/14 in 14 games). Half these points came on the power play.

It’s probably not a coincidence that Gaudreau starting playing regularly with this next guy:

First Star: Adam Fantilli

THE PRINCE THAT WAS PROMISED

He tied Chinakhov for the team lead in goals this month (7) and trailed only Gaudreau with points (13). Most impressive, those were all at even strength. Leaguewide, only Connor Bedard had more points in December (5/10/15) but that was in 15 games AND Bedard averaged 19:45 per game. Fantilli? Still just 15:30.

He has earned way more reps and hopefully Pascal Vincent gives that to him so he can rise to the challenge.

Needs Improvement

Injuries

The curse that haunted the team last year has returned, apparently. New arrivals on the injury list this month:

Adam Boqvist, 12/6, Shoulder strain (four weeks)
Boone Jenner, 12/9, Broken jaw (six weeks)
Patrik Laine, 12/14, Clavicle fracture (six weeks)
Nick Blankenburg, 12/21, upper body (no timetable announced)
Sean Kuraly, 12/23, abdominal (day-to-day)
Zach Werenski, 12/27, ankle (four-six weeks)

YIKES

It’s especially frustrating for guys like Werenski, Laine, and Jenner who are a) key leaders of the team on and off the ice, and b) victims of repeated injury issues for the last three seasons. The silver lining is more chances for young players like Adam Fantilli and David Jiricek…if the coaches give them that chance.

Penalty Kill

For December, no team allowed more shot attempts per 60 minutes while on the penalty kill: 137.07. Unblocked shot attempts were just second-worst, but still a very ugly 101.9. Expected goals allowed? Third worst, at 10.78. When you’re taking 2-3 penalties per game on average and allow a goal once in three times…well, you can see how that can cost you. Four of the losses were by a single goal.

For the first two months of the season, the underlying numbers for the CBJ PK were worse than you’d think based on the results, but still way better than what we saw in December. (116.71 CA/60 for October/November and 83.66 FA/60) The personnel didn’t change much, since the four forwards used the most have remained Kuraly/Texier/Sillinger/Danforth.

What else did change? The goaltending. For the first two months, Elvis Merzlikins had a .956 save percentage on the kill, while Spencer Martin had .892.

In December, two more goalies were added to the mix, and their save percentages were:

Jet Greaves (2 games) .933
Elvis Merzlikins (6 games) .902
Daniil Tarasov (4 games) .769
Spencer Martin (3 games) .615

Tarasov was pretty brutal overall in his first few appearances upon returning from injury. Hopefully his 39 save effort (with no goals allowed in just one penalty kill against) on December 30 is a sign that he’s improving, and a more consistent rotation of him and Elvis can stabilize the kill.