Scoring Chances To Date & Top Line Expectations
As we continue working on tracking scoring chances, I was reached out to by The Coach of Carry The Flag to see if I wanted some help with crunching the combined numbers.
What we found was interesting, so I decided to share, and in addition, I thought I'd offer up a comparison of some of Columbus' top line talent vs. the work done by other teams.
Combined Scoring Chances
First, don't freak out about the size of this chart. It breaks down into three major categories: Even Strength, Power Play, and Shorthanded.
the "TOI" columns are the player's total time on ice for the season so far (Hours:Minutes:Seconds), and the +/- columns are their scoring chances for and against divided against the TOI, with the "DIFF" field showing the total differential.
| # | Player | GP | EV+ | EV- | EV DIFF | ESTOI | EV+RT | EV-RT | ESRT DIFF | PP+ | PP- | PP DIFF | PPTOI | PP+RT | PP-RT | PPRT DIFF | SH+ | SH- | SH DIFF | SHTOI | SH+RT | SH-RT | SHRT DIFF | |
| 2 | R. MARTINEK | 7 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 1:53:24 | 393.65 | 406.35 | -12.7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0:03:40 | 785.45 | 0 | 785.45 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 0:18:58 | 0 | 835.15 | -835.15 | |
| 3 | M. METHOT | 6 | 29 | 18 | 11 | 1:32:24 | 451.95 | 280.52 | 171.43 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0:00:36 | 2,400.00 | 0 | 2,400.00 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0:18:20 | 78.55 | 1,099.64 | -1,021.09 | |
| 4 | J. MOORE | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 0:58:49 | 195.86 | 269.31 | -73.45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:00:02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0:07:13 | 399.08 | 997.69 | -598.61 | |
| 5 | A. JOHNSON | 8 | 46 | 31 | 15 | 2:00:52 | 548.04 | 369.33 | 178.71 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0:06:40 | 648 | 0 | 648 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 0:11:05 | 259.85 | 1,299.25 | -1,039.40 | |
| 7 | J. CARTER | 5 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 1:13:14 | 570.23 | 452.25 | 117.98 | 19 | 3 | 16 | 0:24:15 | 1,128.25 | 178.14 | 950.1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0:02:11 | 0 | 659.54 | -659.54 | |
| 8 | M. MAYOROV | 8 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 1:27:05 | 264.57 | 248.04 | 16.54 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0:00:14 | 6,171.43 | 0 | 6,171.43 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0:01:53 | 0 | 1,529.20 | -1,529.20 | |
| 10 | K. RUSSELL | 11 | 56 | 42 | 14 | 2:36:39 | 514.78 | 386.08 | 128.69 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 0:37:27 | 538.32 | 38.45 | 499.87 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0:01:42 | 0 | 847.06 | -847.06 | |
| 11 | M. CALVERT | 7 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 1:02:29 | 368.74 | 345.69 | 23.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:00:08 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:00:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | C. ATKINSON | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 0:43:54 | 360.82 | 524.83 | -164.01 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0:11:15 | 384 | 0 | 384 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:00:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | G. CLITSOME | 12 | 49 | 50 | -1 | 3:22:34 | 348.33 | 355.44 | -7.11 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 0:46:49 | 707.44 | 153.79 | 553.65 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0:16:36 | 260.24 | 693.98 | -433.73 | |
| 15 | D. DORSETT | 12 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 2:01:27 | 260.85 | 284.56 | -23.71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:00:37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0:20:55 | 68.84 | 963.82 | -894.98 | |
| 16 | D. BRASSARD | 12 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 2:16:21 | 337.95 | 390.76 | -52.81 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 0:37:43 | 572.69 | 114.54 | 458.15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:00:01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | R. UMBERGER | 12 | 54 | 47 | 7 | 2:51:21 | 453.81 | 394.98 | 58.83 | 17 | 1 | 16 | 0:43:15 | 566.01 | 33.29 | 532.72 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0:14:00 | 205.71 | 925.71 | -720 | |
| 19 | R. JOHANSEN | 9 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 1:34:05 | 428.56 | 397.95 | 30.61 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0:11:55 | 845.87 | 0 | 845.87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:00:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | J. WISNIEWSKI | 4 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 1:20:05 | 233.76 | 395.59 | -161.83 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0:22:22 | 450.67 | 0 | 450.67 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0:10:09 | 0 | 141.87 | -141.87 | |
| 22 | V. PROSPAL | 12 | 64 | 42 | 22 | 2:48:09 | 548.08 | 359.68 | 188.4 | 29 | 5 | 24 | 0:55:14 | 756.07 | 130.36 | 625.71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:00:06 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | D. MACKENZIE | 12 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 1:35:48 | 315.66 | 270.56 | 45.09 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:01:19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0:20:31 | 280.75 | 772.06 | -491.31 | |
| 26 | S. PAHLSSON | 12 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 2:19:58 | 288.07 | 318.93 | -30.86 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0:01:15 | 1,152.00 | 0 | 1,152.00 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 0:26:48 | 53.73 | 805.97 | -752.24 | |
| 28 | A. GIROUX | 8 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 1:21:18 | 495.94 | 354.24 | 141.7 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0:18:21 | 549.32 | 78.47 | 470.84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:00:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | C. BASS | 7 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 1:00:42 | 260.96 | 355.85 | -94.89 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0:00:39 | 2,215.38 | 0 | 2,215.38 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0:07:07 | 202.34 | 809.37 | -607.03 | |
| 50 | A. VERMETTE | 12 | 55 | 40 | 15 | 2:50:36 | 464.24 | 337.63 | 126.61 | 18 | 1 | 17 | 0:42:39 | 607.74 | 33.76 | 573.97 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 0:18:26 | 78.12 | 1,171.79 | -1,093.67 | |
| 51 | F. TYUTIN | 12 | 50 | 59 | -9 | 3:32:31 | 338.8 | 399.78 | -60.98 | 26 | 4 | 22 | 0:55:56 | 669.37 | 102.98 | 566.39 | 2 | 18 | -16 | 0:29:56 | 96.21 | 865.92 | -769.71 | |
| 58 | D. SAVARD | 7 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 1:28:39 | 406.09 | 276.14 | 129.95 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 0:24:40 | 934.05 | 58.38 | 875.68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:01:15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 61 | R. NASH | 12 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 2:57:03 | 528.66 | 390.4 | 138.27 | 30 | 5 | 25 | 0:55:44 | 775.12 | 129.19 | 645.93 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0:05:16 | 0 | 820.25 | -820.25 | |
| 390.77 | 356.87 | 33.9 | 952.38 | 43.81 | 908.58 | 82.64 | 634.93 | -552.29 | ||||||||||||||||
Despite the arguments about returning Cam Atkinson to junior, you can see part of the coaching staff's reasoning when you consider his clear struggles at even strength despite receiving decent, if not exceptional ice time, and it's impressive just how much Jeff Carter was dominating on power play scoring advantages despite having only seen 5 games.
Looking at the top line, Rick Nash stands out, but Vinny Prospal seems truly dominant - it's no surprise that he's been leading the team in scoring with these kind of numbers, but Antoine Vermette's failure to convert becomes more and more puzzling.
Outside Comparisons
To put the scoring chance opportunities in some perspective, I asked other bloggers taking part in the scoring chance project if they had complied total stats for their teams and how the top lines performed at even strength. A few were able to respond and give me detailed info - here's what we found:
| Ovechkin | N/A | N/A | 3 |
| Backstrom | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Brouwer | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Nash | 65 | 48 | 17 |
| Prospal | 64 | 42 | 22 |
| Carter | 29 | 23 | 6 |
| Brassard | 32 | 37 | -5 |
| MacKenzie | 21 | 18 | 3 |
| Vermette | 55 | 40 | 15 |
| Hartnell | 21 | 13 | 8 |
| Giroux | 57 | 35 | 22 |
| Jagr | 55 | 31 | 24 |
| JVR | 27 | 14 | 13 |
| Stepan | 28 | 31 | -3 |
| Richard | 39 | 39 | -2 |
| Gaborik | 35 | 34 | 1 |
| Plekanec | 38 | 31 | 7 |
| Pacioretty | 42 | 37 | 5 |
| Gionta | 35 | 45 | -10 |
Suddenly, the struggles for the New York Rangers make a lot more sense, though it must be said that all three are doing far better on the power play. Compared to the Capitals and Canadiens, the Jackets' top line is notably stronger at even strength, and even against the Flyers it would seem that they're doing an equal or better job of creating opportunities, but there's clearly work to be done in preventing opposing chances.
If, especially once Carter returns, the top line can continue producing while improving against opponents, don't be surprised to see a serious scoring boom, and a strong chance of increased Ws as a result.