Tonight at 6:30 PM EDT on ESPN, the NHL will announce the order of the first 16 picks in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. Only teams in the bottom 11 are eligible to move up to the #1 pick, and only teams in the bottom 12 can move up to #2.
The Columbus Blue Jackets were the fourth worst team in the league, so they can move up into the top 2, but are also most likely to move down to either #5 or #6.
Here are the Blue Jackets’ odds, per the indispensable Tankathon:
#1: 9.5%
#2: 9.5%
#3: 0.3%
#4: 15.4%
#5: 44.6%
#6: 20.8%
The odds of the teams that can win #1:
San Jose 25.5
Chicago 13.5
Anaheim 11.5
Montreal 8.5
Utah 7.5
Ottawa 6.5
Seattle 6.0
Calgary 5.0
New Jersey 3.5
Buffalo 3.0
You can also visit Tankathon to simulate the lottery as many times as you want before the show.
At stake tonight is presumptive #1 overall pick Macklin Celebrini. Still just 17 years old (he turns 18 on June 13), Celebrini won the Hobey Baker Award as the best player in NCAA hockey, joining Adam Fantilli, Jack Eichel, and Paul Kariya as the only freshmen to have won that award.
Conspiracy Corner
IF you believe that the NHL will rig the draft, who will they rig it for? Not Columbus, certainly.
#1 Chicago: Bedard and Celebrini can be the new Kane/Toews or Crosby/Malkin
#2 Utah: Ryan Smith gave the league $1.2 billion to bring the ex-Coyotes to Salt Lake City. That seems worth a top pick, right?
#3 Ottawa: They have to surrender one of their next 3 first round picks as punishment for the Evgeni Dadonov no-trade clause debacle. The new owner is NOT HAPPY about it. This could smooth things over, and make it easier to cough up the pick in a future season when the Senators do better with Celebrini joining their already decent, youngish core.