Mike Babcock. Ivan Provorov. Damon Severson. Like it or not, there’s no denying that Jarmo Kekalainen has decided to throw caution into the wind, and decided to aggressively address the issues this team faces. He’s hired* a widely controversial coach, negotiated a blockbuster for an equally controversial defenseman, and executed the second-ever sign-and-trade in NHL history.
So why not an offer sheet?
For those unaware, an offer sheet is when an NHL club signs a contract with a Restricted Free Agent who belongs to another team. The player’s original team then has the option of either matching the contract and retaining the player, or letting the player walk and receiving draft picks as compentation. They are extremely rare; ten have been attempted since the 2004 lockout (and only two went unmatched), and just two since 2013. Why? Collusion. No one knows.
Of the 2023 RFA class, one name sticks out as a potential target: Jeremy Swayman. The Bruins are right up against the cap, with less than $5,000,000 to replace five forwards and Swayman, followed by six more UFAs next offseason. They may also decide to shift to a rebuild, meaning they’d be more inclined to take the draft picks.
Swayman, for his part, put up a 24-6-4 record (15th most wins in the league), four shutouts (tied for fifth), a .920 save percentage and 2.27 goals against per game (both sixth among goalies with 10 or more games played), and 15.25 goals saved above expected (11th in the league, and first among goalies with 37 or less games). And he was bested in all categories by Linus Ullmark. He’s an all-star goalie, and isn’t the starter on his own team.
And finally, let’s look at the Blue Jackets cap situation. With the Provorov and Severson acquisitions, Columbus has $5.8 million in cap space. It is incredibly likely that at least one of Jake Bean, Andrew Peeke, or Adam Boqvist get traded (or Erik Gudbranson bought out) to clear the logjam on defense, which would open around $2.5 million. And the most notable free agent to resign is Marcus Bjork. Next season has a lot of RFAs (Jake Bean, Nick Blankenburg, and literally every forward under the age of 25), but the cap is expected to jump by more than five million dollars, as the players will have their Covid debts paid off by mid-October.
It’s possible.
Alright, now let’s look into the compensation details. All draft picks have to come from the signing team, in the upcoming draft (so 2024, since offer sheets can’t be signed before July 1st, after this year’s draft). Let’s look at the brackets:
| Range | Compensation |
|---|---|
| $750,000 – $1,415,740 | No compensation required |
| $1,415,741 – $2,145,061 | 2024 3rd Round Pick |
| $2,145,062 – $4,290,125 | 2024 2nd Round Pick |
| $4,290,126 – $6,435,186 | 2024 1st and 3rd Round Picks |
| $6,435,187 – $8,580,250 | 2024 1st, 2nd and 3rd Round Picks |
| $8,580,251 – $10,725,314 | 2024 1st, 2nd and 3rd Round Picks, 2025 1st Round Pick |
| $10,725,315 or more | 2024-2027 1st Round Picks |
Ideally, I’d want to fit Swayman just below the $6.4 million barrier, so that we can have something vaguely resembling a draft class next year (note we have Los Angeles’ 2024 3rd). Going above that would require giving up our 2024 2nd, thereby forcing us to give the Flyers our 2025 2nd thanks to the Provorov deal, and giving us no picks in 2024 until the late 3rd.
Does $6.4 million do enough to sway Jeremy? Would Boston match? Would you be willing to go up to the $6.5 to $8.5 range? Sound off below.