On October 21st, the Columbus Blue Jackets held a 2-0 lead early in the second period in Minnesota. It was the fourth game of the season. It was early in the season, the team was 2-2 and well on the way to 3-2, and the hope of the new season was fresh in the 5th Line.
In less than two minutes, the Wild would tie the game.
With barely over five minutes left to play, rookie sensation Adam Fantilli would get his first goal as a Blue Jacket, giving Columbus a 4-3 lead. The Jackets were once again in prime position for a character-building win, setting the tone for a promising season. They set the tone alright.
Marcus Johansson would score with 2:59 left to tie the game.
On January 6th, in Nationwide against the same opponent, the events were much the same, but the tone was much different. It was now the 41st game of the season, marking the halfway point, and the Jackets are last in the division. Three time young star Cole Sillinger would score to give the Jackets the lead. The 4-3 goal came just 26 seconds earlier in the game than Fantilli’s in Minnesota. Three times the Wild would score the game-tying goal. It wasn’t surprising. It was inevitable.
Marcus Johansson would score with 1:32 left to tie the game.
On October 21st, we let that choke slide. It was the first one of the season. The team would grow out of it. By Saturday, we were already resigned to the inevitable. It was the 12th blown third period lead of the season.
November 11th versus Florida. Up 4-3 with 58 seconds to go. Florida scores, Jackets lose 5-4 in OT.
November 26th versus Carolina. Up 2-0 with 10 minutes left. Carolina would score three unanswered to win in regulation.
December 5th versus Los Angeles. The Jackets would take a commanding 3-0 lead to the second intermission. By the 6:38 mark of the third, it was 3-3. The Kings won in Overtime.
December 14th versus Toronto. The Jackets would be up even more; 5-0 at the second intermission. Over the course of the third, the 5th Line was subjected to 20 minutes of torture watching it leak away. Despite Auston Matthews scoring twice in the last 75 seconds, Kent Johnson would score the OT winner to salvage the game.
December 27th versus New Jersey. Jackets take a 2-1 lead into the third. Dawson Mercer would tie it with 4:09 left. But, with the game on his stick, Yegor Chinakhov would put the game away, making it 3-2 with 2:26 to go. Until that lead was blown too, and the Devils won in Overtime.
The Spreadsheet
After that game against the Hurricanes, I started keeping a note on my phone of goals the Jackets allowed with under four minutes to play (excluding empty netters). After the double-choke in New Jersey, I started prepping for this article. I made a spreadsheet of every goal the Blue Jackets have scored and allowed this season, sorted by the minute they were scored. I know I could probably find this somewhere on Money Puck or Natural Stat Trick, but I wanted to see it for myself. Since we’re at the halfway point of the season, now is a good time to go over the data. Here it is.
I mean, it’s a bit sporadic, but that’s to be expected. But we can see the trends. The Jackets have a -4 goal differential in the first minute of the game, which makes sense with how Pascal Vincent will frequently start the Kuraly line for some god forsaken reason. There’s a meaningful drop around the 14-minute mark of the second period. Before that, the Jackets have a positive goal differential in 17 of 34 minutes of play. After, they’re negative in 17 of 26. Not great, Bob!
Let’s break this down by period. Over the first period, the Jackets have a positive goal differential in 11 of 20 minutes, and a negative differential in only four of 20 minutes. In the second, we’re more even; six positive minutes and seven negative minutes. The third period, we’ve only got three minutes in the black, none after the 12 minutes left. We have a whopping 13 in the red. Overall, we’re +6 in the first, +5 in the second, and an incredible -30 in the third period.
I also charted goals for and against per minute separately, as well as total goals per minute. Here’s that chart. The Blue Jackets average an even 1.00 goals for in the first period, 1.12 in the second, and 0.85 in the third. That drop is notable, but shouldn’t be backbreaking. The goals against is another story: 0.85 in the first, 1.00 in the second, followed by a jump to 1.59 goals against per third period. Looking at differential, that’s +0.15, +0.12, and -0.74 respectively. That is backbreaking.
The Jackets have just three individual minutes where they have four goals against in the first two periods; the opening minute, 4:00-4:59 into the first, and 7:00-7:59 into the second. That’s compared to eight such minutes in the third period, including all of the last four minutes of regulation.
Maybe this is a bit too specific. To try to help, I also broke each period in five four-minute segments. This allows us to stabilize the data, but also allows me to artificially isolate empty net goals, as they tend to give total goals a boost in the last couple minutes of the game. Here is that chart.
I mean, look at that! The Jackets are positive or neutral in all but two segments of the first 40 minutes; goals scored by 3:59 into the first or after 16:00 of the second. Compared to the third, where only one segment reaches zero (12:00-15:59), and it’s immediately followed by the worst individual segment of the game. Got to give hope before you can crush it.
One more thing to point out: Look at the last two segments of regulation. Assuming all empty net goals were scored with under four minutes left, the Blue Jackets have a worse goal differential with a goalie than they do without a goalie. Let’s go to the splits to confirm.
Look at that! 10 goals empty net goals against. 16 goals against in the same span when we actually have a goalie. I mean, I know we don’t have an empty net every game, but that’s pretty bad! If you average the first 56 minutes of the game, the Jackets allow 3.01 goals/60. In the last four minutes, again, excluding empty net goals, they allow 5.85 goals/60. Almost double.
One last graph for you fine folks. These stats don’t really mean much unless you can compare it to other teams. That being said, I’m not repeating this process 31 times. So, I’ve chosen five teams to compare the CBJ to; Buffalo and Ottawa are directly above and below Columbus in the league standings, Montreal and Washington are the two teams with the most similar goal differential to the Jackets, and San Jose is the worst team in the league and has had two separate losing streaks of 10 games in 40 games played.
Aside from the most insane deviation I’ve ever seen, the end-of-third Blue Jackets are worst in the sample. Aside from San Jose and Buffalo’s crazy -15 in the late 2nd, only Washington’s -8 in the early 2nd is even close. From the 4:00 mark of the first until the 15:59 mark of the second, the Blue Jackets are above average compared to their peers. Essentially, the Columbus Blue Jackets turn into the San Jose Sharks for the last four minutes of the game, except even worse.
The Conclusions
Alright, these graphs are all incredibly depressing, but what can we learn from them? What could be the cause?
I have a few ideas. There’s a notable dip in goals for in the end of the second and beginning of the third. Perhaps this puts the team in a bad mindset, leading to the poor performance in the rest of the third. Maybe it’s a conditioning issue, caused by a young roster getting used to the NHL, but that only really applies to Jiricek, Fantilli, and Voronkov.
Maybe it’s “Tort-elling.” There’s been many complaints about how the coaching staff will park Fantilli and the Russian lines late in the game, focusing more on defending the lead than continuing the attack. I think this is likely a major contributor, but is this really a unique problem for the Blue Jackets? I feel like most coaches do this, to an extent. Maybe Columbus does it more than most, or there’s a greater gap in skill level between the young players and the veterans than in other rosters?
The final idea is simple: It’s mental. I mean, these guys are smart, they noticed this early. And then the Carolina game happens. And then the media starts asking about it. And then Los Angeles. And then it snowballs from there. Toronto. New Jersey. Minnesota.
Most likely, it’s a combination of things. I don’t have the answers, but all these problems ultimately boil down to either the coaches, or the players. At least one needs to change. Maybe both. But you can’t win games if you can’t hold a lead, so until then, the Blue Jackets will stay in the business of making their fans miserable.