Full disclosure: among the staff here at The Cannon, there aren’t fans of Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Erik Gudbranson. We were universally opposed to his signing two years ago, and the results since then haven’t changed our mind.
That being said, this season he was…fine? Not great, and still clearly overpaid, but he was a passable defense-first defenseman. In 2022-23, the absurd number of injuries meant that Gudbranson was forced into top pair minutes: a career-high 21:18 per game. This season, that was down to 19:40. Still too high, but at least a step into the right direction.
On the plus side, in terms of actual defense, Gudbranson did well relative to his teammates. At 5v5, only David Jiricek and Nick Blankenburg allowed fewer goals against per 60 minutes, and neither of those were full-time players. Expected goals tells a similar story, where just Jiricek was better at 5v5, allowing 2.68 xGA/60 to Gudbranson’s 2.82.
The downside is that Gudbranson struggles in the transition game, so his stats in terms of goals for while on ice look worse, as do his possession numbers. He can battle for the puck, but can’t effectively get it up ice.
On the penalty kill, he was the most frequently deployed defenseman, but allowed the most expected goals per 60 minutes (9.97).
2023-24 Stats
Games: 78
Goals: 6
Assists: 20
Points: 26
Plus/Minus: -14
PIM: 74
5v5 Corsi%: 44.3
5v5 Fenwick%: 44.1
Off Zone Start %: 45.4
Contract
Gudbranson has two years remaining on his infamous 4×4 contract. That contract was frontloaded, however, so it is favorable for a buyout this summer or next. If bought out this summer, he could save the Blue Jackets $2.33M against the cap over the next two seasons, with just a $1.67M cap hit for the two years after that.
Even with the trade of Andrew Peeke, there is still a backlog of right-handed defensemen on the roster and in the pipeline. Where does Gudbranson fit in an organization that also includes Jiricek, Blankenburg, Adam Boqvist, and Corson Cuelemans?
I suspect he’ll still be on the roster this fall, but could be on the trade block next winter. If he keeps up those defensive stats, some contending team could be happy to acquire him as a depth option.
High Point
I could point out on-ice accomplishments, including 2 point games in wins against Colorado and Carolina in April, but instead I think it’s worth remembering that Gudbranson, by all accounts, is a great guy. His teammates love him, and he embraces the community service aspect of being a professional athlete. I love seeing the heart he shows here playing bubble hockey and making friendship bracelets with children fighting cancer:
Low Point
In December, Gudbranson was boarded by Nick Cousins in a game against the Florida Panthers. That penalty was offset by a roughing penalty on Gudbranson, then after both were out of the box, Gudbranson sought revenge and ended up earning an additional 27 minutes in penalties. While I certainly don’t blame him for being upset with Cousins (everyone in the league hates Cousins), this attack put the Blue Jackets on the penalty kill for most of the remainder of the third period, while down by a goal. The kill did well, but gave up a goal late in that penalty.
This sequence reveals a critical flaw in Gudbranson’s game: despite 789 games in the NHL, there is a lack of situational awareness. In such a close game, you can’t afford to assault an opponent, and risk putting your team on the kill. Especially when you are a player the coach trusts to defend most penalties. It was a close game and the Jackets were playing well enough to stay in it.
Report Card
C
I’m a longtime Gudbranson hater but I have to concede he was not the liability I expected him to be this season. Is he still overpaid? Yes. Was he still used too much my the coaches? Absolutely. But he showed that he can still be a useful player on the right team in the right system.