I think it’s safe to say that most Blue Jackets fans believed this team wouldn’t be competing for a playoff spot this season unless almost everything went right. What many are shocked to see is this team on pace to finish with less than 70 points and competing for another bottom three finish. Despite clear upgrades on defense, a new coach (again), and a mostly healthy roster, they still stink.
Maybe it’s time to admit that the players they are trying to build around aren’t the right pieces. Even good players can sometimes not fit together to create a winning team. We are now 3.38 seasons and 3 coaches into the current “reset” with nothing to show for it. What has stayed the same in that time? The current management and core players. Is it time for another reset?
It’s important to point out that this team is far from needing a complete teardown of the roster. There’s too much talent and too many promising prospects to need such drastic measures. But what is clear is that there are assets that could be moved to bring in players that better fit the culture and type of team being built. What are those pieces, and why should they be moved?
Patrik Laine
Before he signed his latest extension, I argued that the Blue Jackets should sign Laine to a long-term contract. I’m not trying to walk that back completely, especially because he was nearly a point-per-game player over the last two seasons, but it’s become clear that Laine does not fit into this current team. He hasn’t meshed with Gaudreau, has struggled on the power play, and isn’t the power forward the team wants him to be. Jarmo, Torts, Larsen, and Vincent have all tried to change Laine into a different player, and it hasn’t worked. It’s time to consider moving on.
The biggest problem here is that Laine has 2 more years left at an $8.7m AAV with a 10-team no-trade list. Are any of the remaining 21 teams going to be willing to take on that contract? Luckily, the Jackets may be in a position to eat some of it for the right return.
Boone Jenner
I’m going to catch some flak for this, but hear me out. Do we think this team is going to be in a position to compete for a Cup by the 2025-26 season? If the answer to that is no, you have to ask if it’s worth holding onto a significant trade piece. Jenner will be 33 at the beginning of his next contract and may be due a hefty raise at the same time Fantilli and Jiricek are coming out of their ELCs. His $3.75m AAV, combined with his playing style and goal-scoring upside, would have teams lined up to make offers.
I don’t think Jarmo would make this kind of move, but a new GM might.
Ivan Provorov
The former Flyer has taken a step forward this season. He’s on pace to set a career-high in points and has proven to be a solid second-pair defenseman. With Mateychuk, Svozil, and Knazko all waiting in the wings, it doesn’t make sense to hold onto Provorov if you can flip him for a good return. He may even be worth more than you paid for him. He has one more year left on his contract, and it wouldn’t make sense to give him any kind of extension – you can pencil in Werenski and Mateychuk being the top two lefties for the foreseeable future.
Others
Fantilli, Jiricek, Gaudreau, and Werenski are the only completely safe players. There are players like Marchenko, Chinakhov, Voronkov, and Johnson that it would take an overpay to move, so they would be mostly safe. Other than that, a careful evaluation of the rest of the roster should be done.
Does Boqvist fit into the long-term plans? Can Peeke and Bean be salvaged? Can Texier be more than a fourth-liner? What’s the point in playing Gudbranson over Blankenburg? There is too much young talent coming up to be blocking them with players that don’t fit the three to five year plan.
The Reset
Not unlike the previous reset plan the current front office set forth, the return you are looking for in trades isn’t strictly for draft picks or prospects. What this team arguably needs is a Nick Foligno or Brandon Dubinsky type of player. Maybe two. It’s not fair to Jenner, but he was originally billed as a plug-and-play replacement for the leadership of those two. Unfortunately, he hasn’t lived up to that.
Adding Foligno and Dubinsky completely changed the team’s play on the ice at the time, and I think it could happen again. They brought energy, toughness, and moxie to a mostly lifeless room. On top of that, they had enough skill to be difference-makers both offensively and, especially, defensively. They brought what this current team lacks.
The Future
Looking forward, the future of this team has never been brighter. Fantilli and Jiricek are going to be stars. Mateychuk may prove to be a future Werenski replacement and a very good complimentary piece until then. Chinakhov, Voronkov, Marchenko, and Johnson are already difference makers with room to grow, and Dumais, Del Bel Belluz, Svozil, and Malatesta highlight a promising future class. Another top-five pick in next summer’s draft could end up being the icing on the cake.
The bottom line is that the current team isn’t good enough. They don’t mesh on the ice, they lack on-ice leadership, and the current core has had plenty of time to try and get it together. It’s not worth mortgaging the future to try and win with this group. The organization is stacked with future talent, and it’s time to look forward to building around them, not the pieces that have failed to produce winning hockey in recent seasons.