Big news broke in the NHL over the weekend, as the much-despised (around here) Pittsburgh Penguins completed their summer-long pursuit of reigning Norris Trophy-winner Erik Karlsson.
Since joining the Penguins in June, new president and general manager Kyle Dubas has made quick work in upgrading the roster by trading for Erik Karlsson and recent Stanley Cup champion Reilly Smith, signing Ryan Graves, Lars Eller, and Noel Acciari, and getting rid of some Ron Hextall mistakes in Jan Rutta and Mikael Granlund. But is it enough to get this aging roster back to the playoffs?
Now, you may be asking “PD, this is a Blue Jackets site. We hate the Penguins. Why talk about them?” Good question, and I have a couple of reasons:
- I thoroughly enjoyed the late-season collapse and the end of their long playoff streak. The Pens and their fans deserve some misery after the draft luck they had in the mid-aughts and the charmed existence of the ensuing 15+ years.
- While the Blue Jackets are not likely to be in the playoff race this season (it’s not impossible, but a lot of things would have to go right), it’s worth looking at the trajectories of other teams in the conference, because it’s crucial for the rebuild timeline that this team return to the postseason by the 2024-25 season.
First, a reminder of the standings: Pittsburgh finished one point behind Florida for the final wild card spot in the East. They tied Buffalo with 91 points, but had the edge with 31 regulation wins to the Sabres’ 30. Tenth place Ottawa also had 31 regulation wins, but just 86 points. The Penguins were helped by their 11 overtime/shootout losses.
I assume that these teams that comfortably made the postseason will return: Carolina, New Jersey, Toronto, New York (Rangers), and Tampa Bay.
I also assume that these teams are certainly not catching Pittsburgh: Columbus (who finished last in the conference, 33 points out of the playoffs), Montreal, Philadelphia, and Washington (sorry, adding Joel Edmunson and Max Pacioretty to an 80 point roster isn’t going to cut it.)
So, have the rest of the teams gotten better or worse? Let’s go in order by last season’s points:
Boston
Not only were they the President’s Trophy winners, but they set a new record for points and wins in doing so. So, they should be a lock to make it back to the playoffs, right? Even if their losses add up to 30ish points, coming down from 135 still leaves them comfortably in a playoff spot.
I worry, however, that the retirement of longtime 1C Patrice Bergeron leaves too big of a hole to fill. The top centers at the moment appear to be…Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle? And you thought the recent Columbus Blue Jackets centers were bad! I do still like their defense, goalies, and the coaching of Jim Montgomery. But there’s a problem if you can’t score. David Pastrnak is one of the best at that, sure, but he will draw even more defensive attention now. Brad Marchand is good, but at 35 he is on the decline. Even more worrying for the future, although Don Sweeney did a masterful job having his best players at below-market contracts, now Pastrnak and top defenseman Charlie McAvoy are paid like top players, and combined account for a quarter of the team’s salary cap. That limits the flexibility for getting help.
Verdict: Way worse
New York (Islanders)
Good news: thanks to Ilya Sorokin, the Islanders allowed the fourth fewest goals in the conference.
Bad news: they scored the fifth fewest. And they have five forwards aged 30 or over making at least $5M against the cap. Not great!
This may be an unpopular opinion but I’m a bit of a Mathew Barzal hater. He’s a good player, but doesn’t strike me as the kind of 1C that can carry a great team. He has never again reached the heights of his 85 point rookie season. Is a 20 goal/70 point center worth $9M? Bo Horvat is a good complementary piece but he just hit the 70 point for the first time and now will carry a $8.5M cap hit for the next 8 seasons.
Verdict: Stuck in neutral
Florida
Man, the Panthers are weird. In 2021-22 they won the President’s Trophy, then exited the playoffs in the second round after barely surviving the first. They responded by the head-scratching move of replacing Andrew Brunette with Paul Maurice, but also the big swing of acquiring Matthew Tkachuk. They barely made the playoffs, but then got red-hot and reached the Stanley Cup Final.
So who are the Panthers, really? I think they’re probably somewhere between those two outcomes. The big question mark comes on defense, where they lose Radko Gudas, and will start the season with Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour on the IR. Will Sergei Bobrovsky play like he did in May, or will he be more like the regular season Bob of his first 4 seasons in Florida?
Having to trade Anthony Duclair in a cap dump is also not idea, though he didn’t play much last year anyway. I still like the forward group a lot, and signing our old friend Kevin Stenlund could be a sneaky-good depth move.
Verdict: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Buffalo
I won’t say the Sabres were good last year, but they sure were fun. They allowed the third most goals in the East, but scored the second most, behind only Boston. They were led by Tage Thompson, who scored 47 goals and 94 points. Kevyn Adams looks like a genius locking up Thompson long term after one good season in 2021-22 (38 goals, 68 points). Thompson now looks like a steal at the $7.1M cap hit that begins this year and runs for 7 years.
I don’t care much for the moves on defense, but it’s reasonable to expect continued development from Rasmus Dahlin, Mattias Samuelsson, and Owen Power. Goalie is another question mark, but a battle between Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (an all-time hockey name) and Devon Levi should be fun.
Verdict: Can build on last year, but didn’t add as much as Pittsburgh
Ottawa
The Senators were a team lots of people expected to take a step forward, after aggressive moves made by Pierre Dorion last summer. That didn’t work out, and that biggest move — trading for Alex Debrincat — had to result in trading Debrincat this time around, and for a loss in value. A late signing of Vladimir Tarasenko helps the offense, but it’s still a downgrade from Debrincat. Reuniting the Cleveland Monsters tandem of Anton Forsberg and Joonas Korpisalo is hilarious, but could actually work?
Verdict: Is due for another leap forward, with a full year of Jakob Chychrun and the return of a healthy Josh Norris. Could be neck-and-neck with Pittsburgh, especially if Tim Stutzle puts together an MVP type season (did you know he scored 90 points last season? It’s true!)
Detroit
We finish with the much ballyhooed Yzerplan. Trading for hometown kid Debrincat is huge, and gives them an elite talent at forward which they have been lacking. The veteran acquisitions of the last two summers are good complementary pieces, but for the most part they lack the dynamic youngsters to support. Someone like J.T. Compher is a good placeholder center, but a 5 year contract? Meh.
I expect a rebound year from Lucas Raymond with Debrincat there to take attention away from him. Mo Seider should get back on track as well, since he clicked with Jake Walman after the dreadful Ben Chiarot experiment ended.
Verdict: Definitely better, but are they capable of a 12-18 point improvement? I need to see it first.
Conclusion
I am leaning towards predicting the Bruins and Islanders to miss the playoffs, which opens up two spots. I think the Penguins have done enough to keep pace with the young teams behind them, but the good news for the Jackets is the aging core in Pittsburgh should fall off pretty soon. The Lightning and Rangers are older as well, which should open that window for us in a year, if we’re ready to take it.