I went into this article fully prepared to rip into this player. Gudbranson played horrible defense, was ineffective in his role as a physical defenseman, and is vastly overpaid, you get the idea. But, when I dove into the stats, he didn’t look that out of place. Are we overhating Erik Gudbranson?
Gudbranson played 21:18 per game, which was third most on the team, behind only Zach Werenski, who played only 13 games, and Vladislav Gavrikov, who was traded at the deadline. Andrew Peeke was the only defenseman to play more games than Erik’s 70. So he spent more time on a very bad defensive unit than any other regular player. This may help explain his -24 plus/minus, which is not good, but is better than six other skaters. The only defensemen worse? The aforementioned Andrew Peeke, and Tim Berni. He recorded 102 shots, highest among CBJ defensemen, 137 blocked shots, second behind Peeke, and 119 hits, 7th on the team. That’s… not terrible!
Looking at the advanced stats, it actually puts Gudbranson as a decent contributor. oiSV%, which looks at the team’s save percentage when Gudbranson is on the ice, clocks in at .910 (compared to a .887 overall), 6th best on the roster. His estimated point share is at 1.5, meaning that the Jackets were 1.5 notches higher in the standings then they’d be without him. It’s not much, but it is positive, and 12th of 47 on the team.
The more basic stuff ain’t pretty, but is also not horrendous. Corsi For (team percentage of shot attempts while on the ice) is at 42.6%, which is bad, but better than 13 other skaters. His Fenwick (percentage of unblocked shots) is similar, 41.4%, finishing 30th of 41. Again, bad, but not abhorrent.
The thing is, none of this backs up the eye test. The Blue Jackets were not fun to watch this season, and Gudbranson definitely contributed to that. And one has to wonder how much his counting stats are just inflated by staying healthy on a team that couldn’t. Still, by the numbers, Erik Gudbranson was almost decent.
2022-23 Stats:
Games: 70
Goals: 1
Assists: 12
Points: 13
Plus/Minus: -24
PIM: 57
5v5 Corsi: 42.6%
5v5 Fenwick: 45.4%
Contract:
Gudbranson has three more years at $4 million per, with a 10-team no trade list right through the end, the 2025-26 season. (For those wondering, a buyout would reduce that cap hit to $1,222,222 per season until 2028-29.)
High Point:
Gudbranson’s one goal was the game-winner in Columbus’ December 2nd win over the Winnipeg Jets. It was one of three wins in an awful 16-game stretch that covered most of December. He also had two primary assists in a 6-4 win over Montreal on November 17th.
Low Point:
Gudbranson went pointless for 17 straight games from December 17th through January 21st.
Report Card:
Am I crazy for thinking a C? It really feels like that’s too high, but the numbers say that Gudbranson was a relatively positive contributor. The eye test is just screaming otherwise? C-, maybe? Let’s go with C-.