Mike Babcock will (reportedly) find the Columbus Blue Jackets in a similar situation as when he took over the Toronto Maple Leafs. Prior to Babcock’s arrival, the Leafs had finished fourth to last and were led by Phil Kessel with 61 points. In 2015-16, Babcock’s first year, the Leafs were still a bottom dweller. Nazem Kadri was their leading scorer with 45 points and P.A. Parenteau (who?) led the team in goals with 20. They had an uninspiring lineup, arguably worse than a healthy Columbus 2022-23 roster, and ended up positioning themselves nicely to land Auston Matthews that summer.
It’s important to understand that Toronto saw a massive injection of talent when looking at the 2016-17 season. Marner was drafted in 2015, but hadn’t made his debut yet. Nylander was on the 2015-16 team, but only played a total of 22 games. Add Matthews and those three all made their full NHL debuts in that season. They combined for 81 goals and 191 points. A healthy van Riemsdyk also played a large role. The most important stat, however, is that they went from 69 points the previous season to 95, making the playoffs.
Toronto Maple Leafs
2014-15 (pre-Babcock)
Points: 68
5v5 CF%: 46.44
5v5 GF/60: 2.12
5v5 GA/60: 2.66
PP%: 15.9
2015-16 (Babcock’s first season)
Points: 69
5v5 CF%: 51.35
5v5 GF/60: 1.86
5v5 GA/60: 2.48
PP%: 15.4
2016-17
Points: 95
5v5 CF%: 50.39
5v5 GF/60: 2.55
5v5 GA/60: 2.43
PP%: 23.8
What stands out when looking at Babcock’s first season in Toronto is the jump in CF%. The veteran coach took a pretty bad roster and turned them into a team that, despite finishing dead last in the NHL, had more shot attempts for than against at 5v5 (they scored 47 goals less than expected). Also, goals against at 5v5 trended downward with goalie save percentage staying about the same.
Babcock will be inheriting a significantly better first year roster in Columbus than he did in Toronto, especially if Jarmo can fortify the defense and if the Jackets’ 2023 top draft pick is named Fantilli or Carlsson. But looking forward from there, what will the team’s ceiling look like without a Matthews and Marner type duo? It’s no secret that the Jackets have a lot of under 25 talent. Can that talent be turned into a contending roster?
A lot has been said about Toronto’s lack of playoff success under Babcock. But to be fair, the Leafs haven’t had much success under Keefe either. Babcock led a very young and inexperienced team in Toronto. His Toronto teams may have never made it past the first round, but that city put a lot of pressure on a very young roster (Matthews was only 21 in Babcock’s last year in Toronto).
We can’t (and shouldn’t) throw out Babcock’s history of past issues and not wonder if history will repeat itself. We certainly hope for the sake of the Blue Jackets that he has taken a long, meaningful look in the mirror. But when looking at the on-ice related numbers, it’s hard not to be excited about what could happen if this hire doesn’t completely blow up in our faces.