Leading up to the 2025 NHL Draft on June 27-28, we will explore both trade targets and free agent targets that Don Waddell may want to explore in his quest to improve the Blue Jackets for next season.
Yesterday, we covered the top forward on the free agent market, Mitch Marner. While he will be coveted by most teams in the league, not as many can meet his asking price, and he can be picky with whose offers he listens to. After him, there is another winger hitting the open market who teams will turn to as a more affordable – and perhaps more persuadable – option.
Nikolaj Ehlers is a 29 year old left-handed left-winger from Denmark who was picked 9th overall in 2014 by the Winnipeg Jets and has spent his entire 10-year NHL career with that franchise. He has only signed two contracts: his entry-level contract, and then an early extension in 2017 that kicked in a year later that paid him an annual average value of $6M over seven years. This is the age where forwards have already hit their peak, so it could be his last chance to cash in on a high value deal that covers most (or all) of the remainder of his career.
Murat Ates at The Athletic recently wrote about the Jets’ offseason and where Ehlers fits into their plans. They signed hometown product Jonathan Toews to a $2M contract with up to $5M in incentives, and want to hold on to RFAs Dylan Samberg and Gabriel Vilardi. Ates projects that the Jets could have room to offer Ehlers up to $8.5M if he’s interested in staying, but expects him to at least test the market before circling back to Winnipeg. Ehlers’ priorities are listed by Ates as such:
Ehlers wants to win, wants to get paid, wants to play a big role and might not want to do it in a fishbowl. I don’t think his future runs through Toronto or Montreal, for example, nor do I expect a rebuilding team such as the Chicago Blackhawks to be at the front of his mind.
Let’s take these in order for Columbus.
Wants to win. This is a clear downgrade in the short term. The Jets are the reigning President’s Trophy winners, while the Blue Jackets missed the postseason. In the long term, however, the Jets have a short window before they will age into a rebuild, whereas the Jackets have a young core that is on their way up.
Wants to get paid. The Jackets have a massive amount of cap room, so could outbid all other suitors. The question is, can the Jackets afford to overpay for Ehlers, if it takes something close to $9M annually over seven years? More on that below.
Wants to play a big role. In recent years, under Rick Bowness and Scott Arniel, Ehlers has seen his average ice time dip below 16 minutes per game. In Columbus, he’d be a lock for a top 6 forward role, and would also be a key feature of the power play (where he scored 6 goals and 16 assists in 69 games last season)
Doesn’t want to be in a fishbowl. This one is an obvious win for Columbus. Even star players can enjoy too much local media pressure here, and can live a fairly normal life in the community. In addition, even as the prospective highest paid forward on the team, Ehlers wouldn’t be expected to be the face of the franchise. Zach Werenski, Boone Jenner, Adam Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko, etc. have that covered. On the other hand, Columbus does offer an upgrade over Winnipeg in terms of amenities. There is more to do here, a better climate, and easier access to destinations both in North America and in Europe.
What kind of player is Ehlers?
First, Ehlers is a possession machine, with positive rates at 5v5 in both on-ice shot attempts (Corsi) and unblocked shot attempts (Fenwick). His expected goal numbers have improved later in his career (above 2.85 xGF/60 each of the last four years, after a previous high of 2.55), and although his xGA declined in turn, this was compensated for by playing in front of the best goalie in the league, Connor Hellebuyck. His shooting percentage is slightly above average but consistently enough in the vicinity of 11% to be reliable.
On the power play, he had 19.22 unblocked shot attempts per 60 minutes last season. Considering how historically weak the power play has been for the Jackets, he could provide a spark there. He and Sean Monahan didn’t get too many power play opportunities together after Monahan joined the Jets in the spring of 2024, but their underlying numbers in the regular season and especially the postseason showed promise (small sample size caveats should be considered, of course).
What are the risks?
As mentioned before, Ehlers is 29 and while plenty of forwards remain productive into their mid-30s, it’s rare that you see them put up numbers that surpass what they did in their 20s. Ehlers has never eclipsed 30 goals or 70 points. In some cases he was on pace to hit those marks, but missed time due to injury. Just four times has he played a season without missing a game.
If Ehlers gets $8-9M and is outperformed by Marchenko, Fantilli, Johnson, etc., how much will those guys demand on their next contracts? How can the team fit those pay raises while a declining Ehlers is taking up cap space? Even with a rising cap, every dollar matters. A shorter term would be safer for the Jackets, but unlike Marner, it makes less sense for Ehlers to take a two year deal.
What do you think? Should Ehlers be a top target of Don Waddell? At what AAV and term?
Personally, I would be excited because I’d insist on pronouncing his name not like he does but rather like Charles Boyle’s adopted Latvian son on Brooklyn Nine Nine