After the highs of the Stadium Series victory on March 1, the mood in Columbus has been understandably soured. The team has gone 2-7-1 in the 10 games since then, with just one regulation win, and their playoff odds per The Athletic’s projections have dropped from 55% on March 4 to 22% now. The Blue Jackets were four points clear of the playoff line and in the first wild card position on March 1, just four points behind New Jersey for third in the Metropolitan Division. Now, with just 12 games remaining, they are two points out of the playoffs with the Canadiens, Islanders, and Rangers to pass.
A shootout win over the Islanders on Monday – along with the long-awaited returns of Sean Monahan and Erik Gudbranson, with Cole Sillinger a possibility to return on Friday – has stopped the bleeding and kept hope alive. But whatever happens the rest of the way, it’s important to remember that this season has already been a tremendous success beyond anyone’s imagination.
Low Expectations
Those same projections at The Athletic gave the Blue Jackets less than 1% chance of making the playoffs. The over/under I found for our preseason predictions was just 67.5 points, just 1.5 above the total from 2023-24. Even with that low bar, Burkus picked the under and Dale said “barely” over. It makes sense! This team had finished with 66 and 59 points in the previous two seasons, and then lost two of the most talented players on the roster in August after the trade of Patrik Laine and the tragic passing of Johnny Gaudreau. This was a bad team that somehow looked worse on paper heading into camp, and had the weight of grief hanging over them.
Fortunately, miraculously, this team bonded over this and found strength through togetherness. The team became better than the sum of its parts, and the fresh voice of new coach Dean Evason also elevated the group. They earned their 68th point and hit the over with that win on March 1. Even a .500 record the rest of the way would get them to 85 points, the most since their 98 point season in 2018-19.
A season for evaluation
Don Waddell was hired as president and general manager over Memorial Day weekend. Dean Evason was hired in late July. With the late start for each, this season was less about competing and more about getting acclimated to the organization and evaluating every aspect of it. Together they could get a sense of what works and what doesn’t, and then approach this (full) off-season with an idea of what they keep and build around, and what they replace with personnel or practices that more closely match their vision and plan for the future.
To that end, we’ve seen several players state demonstrate through their play that they deserve to be a part of those long-term plans. Among the veterans, Zach Werenski was already the best player on the team, but he found another gear here in year 9 of his career to become one of the best defensemen in the entire league. Sean Monahan had dealt with struggles and injuries in Calgary to the point that they had to pay Montreal to take him. He proved last season that he could stay healthy (thanks to a midseason trade, he played 83 games). This year, despite dealing with another move and with the loss of his close friend (and the reason he signed here), he is a new player who has given the Blue Jackets a true 1C for the first time…ever?
Meanwhile, among the young players, Kirill Marchenko had already had a very promising first two seasons in North America, but now has established himself as a play-driving winger. Adam Fantilli had a sophomore slump in the first half of the season and had to shake off rust after missing the last half of last season to injury, but after Monahan’s injury, Fantilli was able to take his spot on the first line and not skip a beat. Kent Johnson also struggled in his sophomore season, but added strength in the off-season and has shown that he can handle the puck just like Gaudreau did. Dmitri Voronkov combines skill and size and has been another fixture on the top line.
With these pieces in place, Waddell has a young core that he can build around. The goal now is making sure the right pieces are in place around those players. He played a big role in turning Carolina around, and we can trust that he has a plan to do the same here. He made a good choice with Evason, whose system complements the skillset of his roster. For the first time in a long time (ever?) it feels like the GM and coach are in alignment. As good as John Tortorella was as head coach for this franchise, it often did not feel as though general manager Jarmo Kekalainen was building a roster that was made for Torts-style hockey.
A silver lining
I, of course, am still rooting for this team to make the playoffs. After all they’ve been through and with the work they’ve put in, this team deserves that opportunity. Being in a playoff race and playing meaningful hockey in March and April is a good enough experience in itself, but as much as we talk about it being “playoff style hockey”, it’s still different when you’re actually in a playoff series. Even a quick loss in the first round would be a valuable experience.
That being said, sometimes you learn more from your failures, and Waddell and his staff may need a harsh reminder about what this team really is. It would be easy to take a playoff appearance as a reason to run it back next season with as much of the same players, coaches, etc. If they fall short, you can take emotion out of it and look at what was missing, who didn’t fit, or who falls just short of what is needed on a championship roster. You could also put certain players into different roles. For example, Zach Aston-Reese and Mathieu Olivier earned new contracts already for their play this season, but on a playoff team they may be more effective in a fourth line role than a third line role.
We also have to accept that some good players may get dealt in order to improve weaknesses on the roster. The right side of the defense has some gaps (as Dale explained yesterday), and while the forwards I listed above are likely untouchable, players like Cole Sillinger and Yegor Chinakhov could draw attention. It’s not that we would discard them, or can’t win with them, but they could be exchanged for a piece we need in a true hockey trade that ends up making us better overall.
No matter what happens in the final dozen games, this Blue Jackets team has given the 5th Line plenty of reasons to cheer. Hockey is fun to watch again! Rather than wallow in grief, they have honored their friend by playing a style of hockey he would have loved. They won an outdoor game that brought together tens of thousands of Blue Jackets fans from Ohio and beyond in a long-overdue celebration of Columbus hockey. Most importantly, for the first time since the pandemic, there is well-founded optimism for the future of this franchise. That’s a victory worth celebrating.