x

Already member? Login first!

Comments / New

Roster management woes in Columbus

Nov 9, 2023; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Columbus Blue Jackets head coach Pascal Vincent scans the bench during the third period against the Dallas Stars at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Russell LaBounty-USA TODAY Sports

The current roster of the Columbus Blue Jackets is thick with talent. Patrik Laine is an elite goal scorer, Johnny Gaudreau is a former 115-point elite playmaker, and Zach Werenski is a two-time NHL All-Star. There is also significant potential in terms of prospects. Adam Fantilli has the look of a franchise center, David Jiricek a top-pair defenseman, and Kent Johnson a top-six playmaking winger. Other players like Kirill Marchenko and Yegor Chinakhov also show potential. That doesn’t even include prospects like Jordan Dumais and Denton Mateychuk, who have yet to play an NHL game.

The above is all excellent news for the future of the franchise, but they are also reasons fans had hopes for a much-improved team this season. Instead, fans have seen odd roster movements, depth players soaking up ice time, elite players struggling on offense, and the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. Over the last four seasons, this team has seen three different coaches (four if you count Babcock) and many of the same problems. A lot has changed, but it’s not hard to look around and see what hasn’t changed over the last four seasons.

Elite Talent Isn’t Thriving

The season before signing with Columbus, Gaudreau had a 40-75-115 scoring line. With the Jets, Laine scored goals at a rate of .46 per game. With the Blue Jackets, that has dropped to .37. The best Columbus seasons came with Artemi Panarin on the roster, but even his scoring increased significantly after leaving for the Rangers.

At some point, the lesser talent or smaller market argument has to go out the window. This franchise has struggled to produce elite talent and, when it’s had it, hasn’t been able to build a thriving team around it. Instead of trying to figure out how to best utilize players like Laine and Gaudreau, the Blue Jackets have tried to change their games. Rosters are built around those kinds of players, not the other way around.

Treatment of Young Players

When you have highly talented players, it would make sense to develop them and lean on them. Over the last several seasons, we’ve seen grit and veteran depth players be relied upon for heavy minutes. Jenner, Kuraly, and Gudbranson get the call when down or goal or up a goal late in games. They often play more minutes than more talented players. In one example, Fantilli is averaging just over 15 minutes of ice time each night. Compare him to Leo Carlsson of Anaheim, who is averaging over 18 minutes, is playing next to Troy Terry, and already has a hat trick under his belt. But it’s not just on-ice where this problem shows itself.

This past week, according to Aaron Portzline of The Athletic, GM Jarmo Kekalainen sat down with Jiricek and told him to get a place in Columbus. Just a few days later, Jiricek was demoted to Cleveland for a back-to-back in favor of Peeke and Boqvist. The Czech defenseman is currently first among Blue Jackets blue liners in expected goals against. This kind of move is baffling – it made the team worse and potentially upset a future star.

Whether it be the mishandling of development or the hard-nosed approach to contract negotiations, this team has seen its fair share of young players ending up somewhere else. Josh Anderson wasn’t offered a long-term option, Pierre-Luc Dubois didn’t seem to have any faith in a rebuild here, William Karlsson was handed to Vegas for free, and many others never lived up to their potential. Many of us have tried to explain each situation as its own set of unique circumstances, but at some point, a trend is a trend.

Bad Contracts for Bad Players

After a 15-point season in 2021-22, Andrew Peeke was given a three-year extension at a $2.75m AAV. It was a weird move at the time because Peeke was already under contract for the next season. (There are still two years left on that contract, by the way.) Now Peeke is struggling mightily when in the lineup, and Jarmo hasn’t been able to execute a trade in a cap-strapped league. These types of contracts have been prevalent in recent years, and young, more talented players are often blocked as a result.

Erik Gudbranson has been much better this season, but you can argue that he’s still blocking better players. Gudbranson was brought in to be a physical player with veteran leadership. What we’ve seen more of is him getting knocked off the puck, losing puck battles in the corners, and moved out of the way in front of the net. Meanwhile, Nick Blankenburg has 10 points in 11 games in Cleveland, and the Blue Jackets always played better with him in the lineup last season.

Having $6.75m of cap space wrapped in these two players should be unacceptable, especially when there are ELC replacement-level players available.

What’s Next?

It certainly sounds like ownership may have given Jarmo some kind of goal that needs to be met in order to keep his job. Right now, this team has only won 1 of their last 10 games. It’s hard to imagine there not being some kind of change in the front office before next season if the team keeps floundering like they have. But there are also other factors that may make a change necessary.

First, the cap is set to go up somewhere between $4m-$5m next season, the largest jump in recent memory. That could mean a flurry of deals as some teams will have flexibility they haven’t had. If you want a fresh perspective to come in and build a team, you may want them in place before the 2024 NHL Draft.

Second, there may be several young players pushing for a roster spot next season. Denton Mateychuk nearly made the team this season before being sent back to the WHL. Jordan Dumais is back to putting up record numbers in the Q. David Jiricek is a lock for the opening night roster next season. Also, a decision needs to be made on whether other players like Marchenko and Chinakhov are full-time NHLers or not. In other words, a fresh perspective could be valuable in making some of the inevitably tough decisions.

Third, there are several contracts coming due next season. Texier, Marchenko, Sillinger, Bemstrom, Chinakhov, Bean, Johnson, Blankenburg, and Christiansen will all be RFAs. Several of those players have a long-term future with this club, and long, drawn-out negotiations may not be what this organization needs right now. Also, a different decision-maker may have an easier time making necessary buyout decisions if that is needed.

There will be no shortage of decisions to make in the next 12 months. Questions continue to arise regarding the current management of this team, and the on-ice performance hasn’t gotten any better. It’s likely that changes are coming, and it may only be a matter of when. If a management change does happen, hold onto your hats. Those kinds of changes, combined with a plethora of talent and assets, could lead to significant changes on the ice.