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Reviewing November 2024: Hot and cold

Nov 29, 2024; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Zach Werenski (8) skates with the puck alongside center Sean Monahan (23) in the game against the Calgary Flames in the third period at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Previously: October

Results

L 2-6 vs. WPG
L 2-7 @ WSH
L 1-2 (OT) @ SJS
L 2-5 @ LAK
L 2-4 @ ANA
L 2-5 @ SEA
W 6-2 vs. PIT
L 1-5 @ MTL
W 5-1 @ BOS
W 7-6 (OT) vs. TBL
W 5-4 (SO) vs. CAR
L 3-4 (OT) vs. MTL
W 5-2 vs. CGY

Weird month, which began with a six game losing streak but recovered with wins in 5 out of 7 and 6 straight games with a point. Going winless in California hurts, but the games were at least competitive. Games against Winnipeg, Washington, Seattle, and Montreal were not.

Standings

Bad news: at the end of November, the Blue Jackets were in last place in the Metro. Good news: they had multiple games in hand on everyone ahead of them, so by points percentage they leap ahead of Pittsburgh and the NY Islanders. Additional good news: by points they are ahead of three Atlantic teams, so they’re far from being in the basement of the conference. In fact, the Jackets (through November 30) were both four points ahead of last place and four points behind a playoff position.

Leaguewide, by points percentage, that .523 was good for 17th out of 32. That’s progress!

Stats

StatNovember 2024October 2024November 20232023-24
5v5 CF%53.03 (7)48.90 (20)46.15 (26)47.45 (23)
5v5 FF%52.97 (6)50.17 (17)46.84 (27)46.77 (25)
5v5 Save %87.96 (32)91.44 (14)90.26 (23)91.17 (17)
5v5 Shooting %8.00 (21)14.21 (2)10.92 (4)9.03 (11)
5v5 xGF%54.10 (6)48.63 (19)46.37 (25)46.13 (27)
GPG3.23 (9)3.89 (5)3.07 (20)2.85 (24)
GAPG4.08 (32)2.78 (6)3.47 (22)3.63 (31)
PP%20.0 (20)16.7 (21)7.1 (31)15.1 (31)
PK%72.5 (28)81.5 (10)94.1 (1)76.3 (25)

I’m not going to keep sharing the monthly stats from last season, but since November 2023 started with a franchise-record 9 game losing streak, I wanted to see how this month with another length losing streak compared. It’s way better! The possession and expected goal numbers show that the success this team is having is not a fluke. They are playing solid hockey. Special teams and goal prevention continue to be an issue, which we’ll cover below.

The shooting percentage at 5v5 plummeted, which we saw the effect of on the California trip.

Three Stars

Third Star: Dante Fabbro?

We all know plus/minus isn’t a great stat, but you know who had the best rating in November? Dante Fabbro! He was +11 and the next closest was Kirill Marchenko with +6. More impressive is that Fabbro did that in just 8 games. He wasn’t even in the organization at the start of the month! He was claimed on waivers while the team was in southern California, and made his CBJ debut in Seattle. He quickly found a spot on the top pair next to Zach Werenski, and has fit in perfectly there. He has 2/3/5 in his 8 games, and added another goal on Sunday in Chicago. Not bad.

Second Star: Kent Johnson

KJ was a standout star in the first week of the season, before re-injuring his surgically repaired shoulder. We all feared the worst, but fortunately he only ended up missing five weeks. Any concerns regarding rust were quickly put to rest when he scored two goals in his comeback against Tampa Bay. He was 3/3/6 in just 4 games in November, which also means he has continued his streak of registering a point in every game he has played so far this season. Including the goal he scored on Sunday in Chicago, Johnson has 6/6/12 in 9 games. He probably won’t keep shooting 35.7% but he should continue being a dynamic playmaker.

First Star: Zach Werenski

Z was my third star for October, and is the obvious first star for November. He led the team in goals, assists, and points. He’s averaging 26:49 minutes per game. He’s having an impact all over the ice AND in the locker room. When the Team USA roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off is revealed on Wednesday, Werenski deserves to have his name called. He should probably also be in the Norris Trophy conversation. His 26 points on the season trail only Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes.

Needs Improvement

Special Teams

The power play improved slightly from October but is still in the bottom half of the league. The return of Kent Johnson should help, as the team has scored a power play goal in 6 of the 9 games he has appeared in (and only 5 in the 14 games without him).

The penalty kill is a MAJOR problem. Opponents scored on the man advantage in 10 of the 13 games in November, including the last 8. Not included in the numbers are the 3 PPGs surrendered in Chicago on Sunday. Discipline is an issue: in 6 of those 13 games, the Jackets gave opponents at least 4 power play opportunities. That’s way too much.

Goaltending

The PK is allowing 6.53 expected goals against in 61 minutes of PK time, and that’s not great. What is worse is giving up 10 actual goals in that span. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 9 power play goals against 5.24 expected. His high danger save percentage on the kill is just .667.

The 5v5 story for Elvis is way better, as his save percentage there is .902, and .826 on high danger shots. He allowed 23 goals against vs. 21.58 expected goals against at 5v5. Daniil Tarasov, on the other hand, has a 5v5 save percentage of .800 and allowed 13 goals against 6.7 expected in just three starts.

That’s not to say that there haven’t been good performances from both players this season. Elvis in particular has had some really great games. But both have had games that got out of hand when they got no help from the offense. Look at the schedule at the top of the post: this team is equally capable of winning 6-2 or losing 2-6.

Talking Points