Gameday #42: At the midway point, what are we?

Tuesday, January 6, 2026 – 10:00 PM ET
SAP Center – San Jose, California
TV: FDSNOH; Radio: 97.1 FM

Columbus Blue Jackets (18-16-7, 43 points, 8th Metro, 16th East)

at

San Jose Sharks (20-18-3, 43 points, 6th Pacific, 9th West)

Previously

For the second leg of a back-to-back, the Blue Jackets held a 3-1 lead after the first period. Yay! They even added a goal early in the second to go up 4-1! Yay? Nah, I think we were all holding our breath there, especially as the Penguins cut it to 4-2 after 40. Sure enough, the game was tied in the final minute and then won by Sidney Crosby in overtime, as a bulge of Yinzers belched their meat-and-nicotine breath all around me.

So what now?

Through 41 games last year, the Jackets were 18-17-6, for 42 points, and everyone felt great about it. This year, they are 18-16-7, for 43 points, and everyone is mad. What gives?

Obviously, a big part of it is expectations. Anything better than bottom of the barrel last year was a huge success. This year, we hoped for growth. Just plateauing isn’t good enough, especially when you’re not yet a playoff team.

Another issue is the weirdness of the standings this season. By points percentage, the West has the top 3 teams in the league (all from the Central Division, at that), and the bottom 7. The top 9 Eastern teams are ahead of the 4th best Western team, Vegas, which lead the Pacific. Oh, and no one in THAT division has a positive goal differential.

The Jackets have the same points percentage as the Sharks, but are farther out of a playoff position. The Sharks also have the novelty of just being “not last.” Also, Macklin Celebrini having the opposite of a sophomore slump. The Jackets’ best players are producing like they were last year, but being consistently good doesn’t have the same spark as a breakout season does, especially when it doesn’t appear to be helping the team as much.

Technically, this team has more solid underlying numbers, at least at 5v5:

2024-25, through 41 games: 50.26% GF (2.81-2.78, per 60), 48.84 xGF (2.53-2.65 per 60)

2025-26: 50.00% GF (2.66-2.66), 50.03% xGF (2.8-2.8)

So, our actual production is more like what we would expect last year, and our expected production is more like what we actually got last year.

Then, finally, there’s the whole third period issue.

Average score difference so far this year. It's peculiar how St Louis manages to fall off so sharply at so close the midpoint of the second precisely.

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— Micah McCurdy (@hockeyviz.com) January 5, 2026 at 8:36 AM

The way this team finishes games certainly affects our perception. How many extra standings points would we have if we held on to even half of those third period leads?

Notes

Congrats to Elvis Merzlikins on officially being named to Latvia’s roster for the Olympics. Also announced today were former Jackets Lukas Sedlak for Czechia and Alexandre Texier for France.

Speaking of former Jackets, current Shark Alexander Wennberg signed a 3 year contract extension yesterday, with an AAV of $6M.

Stats

Projected Lineups

Columbus Blue Jackets

San Jose Sharks