Now that we are almost a week removed from the start of NHL free agency and much of the off-season business has been addressed, it’s time to look at where things stand and ask: are the Columbus Blue Jackets better or worse now than they were over the last season?
A few caveats: of course, this is just looking at things on paper. We can’t project how healthy the team may be (hopefully changes to the training and medical staff can help), and we can’t predict what internal development or regression we may see. Some of that will be taken into account, however. We also can’t predict which prospects may play their way onto the roster, so this exercise will focus mostly on those players with NHL contracts and NHL experience.
Finally, I’ll get it out of the way that I am personally disappointed with the lack of major moves by Don Waddell to this point, but I also recognize that this was a tough market. Every team had more cap space to work with, and a lot of top free agents were either re-signed or traded before free agency began, so there was less to work with out there. I like what Montreal did, building on a surprise playoff run by spending draft picks and prospects to add youngish players to their roster (Noah Dobson and Zachary Bolduc, most notably). The Jackets were in on Dobson, but didn’t appear to take any big swings after that.
There’s still plenty of off-season left and there’s always a chance that another move gets made, but it’s reasonable to start looking towards camp and counting that the roster listed below is what we’ll have to work with.
Center
Departures: Sean Kuraly (signed with Boston), Justin Danforth (signed with Buffalo)
Additions: Charlie Coyle (acquired in trade from Colorado), Isac Lundestrom
Projected Depth Chart: Sean Monahan, Adam Fantilli, Coyle, Cole Sillinger, Lundestrom
Spares: Dmitri Voronkov, Boone Jenner, Luca Del Bel Belluz
The biggest addition to the roster this off-season was Charlie Coyle. He’s a solid faceoff center (joining Monahan and Jenner) and offers a different look on the right side (replacing Danforth). At $5.25M he has the second-highest cap hit among forwards (trailing only Monahan) but it’s only for this season. He’s a likely 3C, which could push Cole Sillinger to the wing, on either the second or third line. If they end up on the same line, they could split faceoffs depending on which side of the ice they occur.
An underrated move in free agency was Lundestrom, signed from the Anaheim Ducks. He’s still relatively young and put up good defensive numbers on a bad defensive team. He and Coyle can take a large PK role, leaving Monahan and Jenner fresher for 5v5.
Monahan overcame personal tragedy and his injury history to put together a highly productive season as 1C. Fantilli had growing pains, but stepped up admirably on the top line in Monahan’s absence. He is a 30 goal scorer now while also showing growth as a 200 foot forward.
Better or Worse? Certainly better defensively, which, as we see below, is not going to come from the actual blue line. Injuries to Monahan and Sillinger took a toll last season, so better health there could help too.
Left Wing
Departures: James van Riemsdyk (signed with Detroit)
Additions: Miles Wood (acquired in trade from Colorado)
Projected Depth Chart: Dmitri Voronkov, Boone Jenner, Sillinger or Coyle, Wood
Spares: Zach Aston-Reese, Mikael Pyyhtia, James Malatesta, Brendan Gaunce
The best news on the left wing is that Voronkov signed a new contract this weekend for two years at an annual cap hit of $4.175M. That makes him the third highest paid forward (behind Monahan and Coyle) but Big Boss certainly deserves it. His conditioning is still a concern for the front office, but his production speaks for itself. He worked as a net-front presence on a line with Kirill Marchenko, whether Monahan or Fantilli was the center.
Jenner missed much of the season to a shoulder injury, then played center on his return due to injuries to Monahan and Sillinger. He shouldn’t have to play center now, but can still fill in as a faceoff guy as necessary. As a winger, he can be more free to forecheck and create chaos in front of the opponent’s net.
I see Cole Sillinger as a center, but there times last season where he played higher in the lineup as a winger due to injuries. Charlie Coyle is a superior center, so Silly may have to shift to wing in the middle six.
Miles Wood has four years left on his contract. That $2.5M doesn’t matter as much with the cap going up, but the term is bothersome for a guy who hasn’t put up 30+ points since 2018. If he can put up 10/15/25 as a depth forward, that’s probably the best we can expect.
Better or Worse? JVR never got a fair shake here, and Wood is a downgrade from him. A full season from Voronkov/Jenner/Sillinger in the top nine should be an improvement, however.
Right Wing
Departures: Kevin Labanc (still unsigned), Luke Kunin (still unsigned)
Additions: None
Projected Depth Chart: Kirill Marchenko, Kent Johnson, Yegor Chinakhov, Mathieu Olivier
Spares: Pyyhtia, Malatesta, Gaunce, Jordan Dumais
This is the forward position where I feel the most confident. Marchenko and Johnson took huge steps forward last season and it’s reasonable to expect even more from both. Chinakhov possesses an exceptional shot, but has had difficulty staying healthy. Olivier is known for his pugilism but managed to score 18 goals last season, a huge leap over the 13 goals he scored in his previous 168 career NHL games. It’s a stretch to expect him to replicate that, but he also should be expected to play fewer minutes than he did last season.
Better or Worse? Certainly no worse here, and hopefully better if Chinakhov can stay in the lineup and if Olivier can score around 10 goals in a fourth line role.
Left Defense
Departures: Jordan Harris (signed with Boston)
Additions: None
Projected Depth Chart: Zach Werenski, Denton Mateychuk, Jake Christiansen
This is the strength of the defense. Werenski was the runner-up in Norris Trophy voting and was a first-team NHL All-Star. Mateychuk was one of the two defensemen on the All-Rookie team. Christiansen played 68 games as a solid depth defenseman and earned a new contract that pays him just shy of a million dollars through 2026-27.
Better or Worse? Mateychuk only played 45 games last season and turns 21 this week, so he should continue to improve. Was Werenski’s season a new normal, or is it only downhill from here?
Right Defense
Departures: None
Additions: Christian Jaros (signed to a two-way deal from the KHL)
Projected Depth Chart: Dante Fabbro, Ivan Provorov, Damon Severson, Erik Gudbranson
Spares: Jaros, Corson Ceulemans
Fabbro was a waiver pick-up in November who ended up becoming a perfect partner for Werenski on the top pair. He was re-signed for a very reasonable 4 x $4.125M extension. After a dalliance with Noah Dobson, the Jackets circled back to Provorov and signed him to a new 6 x $8.5M deal. It was roundly assessed as an overpay by the leaguewide media, but it’s hard to see any options on the market that would be better than Provorov in the short term. The extra term and AAV may be a Columbus tax. It feels weird that he would sign on to playing on his off-hand (as a natural lefty), but playing on the right side next to Mateychuk seemed to work.
That leaves the bottom pair in flux, where Gudbranson is in the final year of his notorious 4 x $4M contract, and Severson has six years remaining at an annual cap hit of $6.25M. Will the third pair be these two, with one on their off hand, or one playing with Christiansen and the other sitting in the press box?
Defense was an obvious issue with the Jackets last season so I share the frustration with bringing back the same corps, for the most part. But I was surprised to see these stats pulled by Aaron Portzline of The Athletic.
In the 41 games in which Werenski, Fabbro, Mateychuk and Provorov all dressed, the Blue Jackets went 26-13-2 (.658 points percentage) and allowed 2.95 goals per game. In the 41 games in which one or more were missing from the lineup, the Jackets went 14-20-7 (.427 points percentage) and allowed 3.56 goals per game.
It felt like that was our top four for much longer than just 41 games. If we get more games of those four together, I feel a bit more comfortable about the blue line. I also feel like the forwards should provide more assistance, with the addition of Coyle and (hopefully) more games from Monahan and Jenner.
Better or Worse? The right side certainly isn’t better. Is it worse? That is perhaps the biggest question going into the season.
Goalie
Departures: Daniil Tarasov (traded to Florida)
Additions: None
Projected Depth Chart: Jet Greaves, Elvis Merzlikins
Spares: Zach Sawchenko, Nolan Lalonde
In goal, the off-season has progressed as I expected. I thought there was a chance that Tarasov could be non-tendered, but trading him for a fifth round pick was a plus. He simply wasn’t good enough, was often injured, and was a restricted free agent. Greaves was fantastic in the final two weeks of the season and has the inside track to being the primary goaltender. Merzlikins is polarizing but still has a difficult contract to move. He and Greaves can push each other this season, and any trade of Elvis can wait until the deadline or next summer.
Better or Worse? If what we have seen from Greaves is sustainable, then the goaltending should be better. Will he get any more help from the forwards or defenders?
What do you think? Are the Blue Jackets better or worse? What moves, if any, would you like to see Waddell make this summer?