It’s no secret that there have been ups and downs this season in the back half of the lineup. Some of those struggles have been individual, some as a group. In Aaron Portzline’s Sunday Gathering on The Athletic, Porty threw out an interesting tidbit. “The Blue Jackets are hoping to make significant changes on the blue line for next season, and there could be changes among the goaltenders, too.” Let’s dive into what that could mean.
Defense
Number one on my list of potential changes is veteran defenseman Damon Severson. One of Jarmo’s parting gifts to the Blue Jackets was signing the former Devil to an 8-year deal worth $6.25 million annually. Since joining the Blue Jackets, Severson has been wildly inconsistent. His overall numbers aren’t terrible, but there are frequent games where he is almost unplayable. He’s prone to bad positioning and ill-timed penalties and doesn’t seem to make those around him better. Dean Evason has noticed, too. At 5v5, Severson is averaging nearly two minutes less per game than Provorov and almost three minutes less than Fabbro.
Next up is Ivan Provorov. While he has been better than Severson, he hasn’t exactly been awe-inspiring, either. He’s not bad positionally like Severson, but his one-on-one defense is lacking. He often gets beat to pucks and gets out-manuvered in front of the net. I have no qualms with him being on the team right now on an expiring contract with an AAV of only $4.725 million. However, I fail to see the value of offering him a long-term extension of $6 million or more per season. You might be able to convince me of a short-term contract, but only if the search for a replacement has been exhausted.
The third pair is a bit of a wild card. Erik Gudbranson was playing better before being injured early in the season and only has one year left on his contract. Could the Blue Jackets afford to lose three veteran blueliners? The decision on Gudbranson could be another one that depends on whether or not Waddell can find a suitable replacement. I still think Jake Christiansen was the right choice as the last defenseman in, but he hasn’t stood out in any significant way. Long story short, both of those spots could be up for grabs via trade, signing, or promotion (Stanislav Svozil).
Goaltender
Elvis Merzlikins has been much better this season. His overall numbers don’t look great, but that’s partially due to the team’s poor PK performance. However, he’s been serviceable at 5v5. According to Money Puck, he’s 19th in the league in goals saved above expected at 5v5 at 7.9. Given the fact that team defense is still lacking (the Jackets sit at 27th in 5v5 high-danger chances against per 60), I’d say Elvis has at least been league average. Given that his contract is still not easily movable, and the Jackets likely won’t be up against the salary cap, it may be safe to say that he’s back next season.
Daniil Tarasov may not see the same fate. After once again battling injury early in the season, Tarasov has been wildly inconsistent. He sits at 77th in goals saved above expected, a stat the eye test confirms. Though he has been better as of late, he has let in a ton of softies this season. With Jet Greaves sitting in Cleveland, Sergei Ivanov possibly coming over from Russia, and Evan Gardner maybe graduating from Juniors, the writing may be on the wall for the Jackets to move on from Tarasov.
Wild Waddell
While it may be a bit too early to speculate about the off-season, especially with the Blue Jackets still in the wild card hunt, it may be safe to say that Waddell’s first full off-season as Columbus GM could be a busy one. He has had an entire season to evaluate the roster and seems ready to make changes. The most challenging job of a GM is to put the right pieces in place around the core team, which now seems established for this team. With a pocket full of futures and a mostly established vision, Waddell could be poised to make serious noise this summer.
What say you? What changes would you make?