2025 Free Agency Preview and Open Thread

It’s July 1st, which means it’s free agency day! Some of the biggest stars in the NHL are in need of a new home! Mitch Marner! (Sign and trade with Vegas, 8x$12M) Aaron Ekblad! (Re-signed 8x$6.1M) Sam Bennett! (Re-signed 8x$8M) Brad Marchand! (Re-signed 6x$5.25) John Tavares! (Re-signed 4x$4.125M) Ivan Provorov! (Re-signed 7x$8.5M… the hell???)

Just like every year, the majority of the big-name free agents re-signed with their teams before the July 1st deadline. And all but Provorov signed for under value (which limits who the Blue Jackets could sign to begin with…). But that’s a discussion for later.

Let’s do a quick recap of the top players available, and see if we can play matchmaker with the Jackets. Projected contracts are via CapWages.

Forwards

Current Projected Lineup

There’s really one of two holes for the Jackets to fill here. Ideally, Waddell can land a 2nd line wing to play with Fantilli and Johnson, giving Columbus two even scoring lines and incredible center depth for next season. If not, then Cole Sillinger can get bumped to that spot, Coyle takes over as 3C, and then it’s a matter of finding a cheap 4C option. Or do both, and keep scratching Chinakhov. Let’s look at the wing options since that’s more interesting; 4Cs are a dime a dozen, and can be addressed later in the off season.

Nikolaj Ehlers – Projected 6 years, $8 million AAV
Ehlers is a skilled, all-around forward, both as a playmaker and sniper. We did a full preview for him last week.

Brock Boeser – Projected 6 years, $8.5 million AAV Re-signed with VAN, 7x$7.25M
The 28-year-old wing is coming off a 25-goal, 50-point season in Vancouver, after netting 40 goals and 73 points the year before. When healthy, he’s a pure sniper that would boost the Jackets power play significantly, and he’s a bounce back candidate that most analysts like for the CBJ. I don’t. I really don’t want to mess with the vibes of the locker room too much, and the Canucks’ locker room is the most toxic in the league.

Mikael Granlund – Projected 2 years, $5 million AAV Signed with ANA, 3x$7M
The most expendable of Dallas’ InFINNity Gauntlet, Granlund is a great all-around veteran option. Winger or center, anywhere in the top nine, and contributor on both the powerplay and penalty kill. He scored 22 goals and 66 points (19 on the powerplay) in his age 33 season, making him a valuable option both on the ice and in the locker room. He’s the best option in between the top echelon (which is now just Ehlers and Boeser) and the rest of the pack.

Pius Suter – Projected 4 years, $5 million AAV
Suter’s probably the best of the rest, and possibly the best defensive forward option available. With nearly an identical statline to his teammate in Boeser, he’s shown capable of handling shut down duty as the Canucks’ 3C. Despite his slower foot speed, he processes the game fast, which is why I’m comfortable slotting him with Fantilli and Johnson on the second line. He’d be a defensively responsible veteran presence on that line, capable of contributing without breaking the bank. And his ability to flex to center sure ain’t a downside. I know I said not to touch Vancouver’s locker room two paragraphs ago, but I wouldn’t mind a flyer on Suter.

Defense

Current Projected Lineup

With Ivan Provorov signed to that massive deal, there really isn’t room to add on the blueline for the foreseeable future. That is, unless management plans to play Provorov on his natural left side, and drop Mateychuk to the third pair, which maybe somehow makes his contract even worse. (But again, that’s a discussion for later.) If that’s the plan, the Jackets are still in need of a 2RD, or at least a 3RD option to keep Damon Severson from needing to play.

Vladislav Gavrikov – Projected 7 years, $7.5 million AAV Signs with NYR, 7x$7M
Hey, I know this guy! Easily the best defensive defenseman on the market, he played on the Kings top pair for much of this past season, and that unit was one of the best in the league. There’s been some mutterings of Gavrikov reuniting with the CBJ, though whether that’s fan copium or legitimate rumor is up to debate. Which isn’t up for debate is that the Provorov extension makes signing him as well inexcusable; having four defensemen over $6.25M/year for the next half dozen years is a recipe for disaster.

Cody Ceci – Projected 2 years, $3.5 million AAV Signed with LA, 4x$4.5M
John Klingberg – Projected 1 year, $2 million AAV Signed with SJ, 1x$4M
After Gavrikov (who himself is a natural lefty capable of playing on the right) the options for right-handed defense drop off fast. As in, “Cody Ceci and John Klingberg are your backup options” fast. Both known defensive black-holes, the Jackets would be wise to avoid touching either with a 29.5-foot pole. According to the Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn, Ceci has a -1.4 net rating on offense and a -3.2 net rating on defense. Not good! Klingberg is better on offense (only -0.2, which is pretty negligible), but somehow worse on defense (-4.3, which is… not). That’s part of why, if Gavrikov or a trade acquitision weren’t options, signing Provorov was of paramount importance. Just not for seven years at $8.5M.

Nick Perbix – Projected 2 years, $2.75 million AAV Signed with NSH, 2x$2.275M
Okay, so getting that 2RD isn’t really reasonable. Let’s look at 3rd pair options. I’ve been a quiet supporter of Nick Perbix for a while now, partially because his name sounds cool. He’s a late-bloomer, but with good size and work ethic. Sound defender all-around. Not much offensive upside, but he spent time with Victor Hedman, so maybe he could work as Dante Fabbro 2.0? Lightning could strike twice (get it?).

Jacob Bernard-Docker – Projected 1 year, $1 million AAV* Signed with DRW, 1x$875K
Just 25 years old, JBD was acquired by Buffalo this season in the Josh Norris-Dylan Cozens trade at the deadline. He then went untendered as an RFA. Great asset management there, Sabres. He’s a mobile righty with size and decent defensive metrics, but not much offensive ability. But hey, if you want to win a cup, you need a former Sabre.

Goaltenders

Similarly to the defense, the goaltending situation needs to improve, but also doesn’t have much room to. Daniil Tarasov was sent to Florida before the draft, leading to a showdown (and likely split) between Elvis Merzlikins and Jet Greaves for the starter’s crease. And while three-goalie rotations are kinda voodoo these days, it is an option to explore.

Jake Allen – Projected 2 years, $3.5 million AAV Re-signed with NJ, 5x$1.8M
Allen’s really the only potential starter available in free agency, and as such is likely to be out of the Jackets’ range and interest. He posted a 2.66 GAA and .906 SV% last season, which would be an improvement last year’s tandem. His GSAx/60 was also in the league’s top tier. He’s a veteran presence, which might be helpful with the young Jet taking off and Elvis’… jumpiness?

Alex Lyon – Projected 2 years, $1.75 million AAV Signed with BUF, 2x$1.5M
At this point, Lyon is a certified journeyman and has been a part of three-goalie tandems in the past in both Florida and Detroit. He has a strong stretch with the Panthers in 2022-23 that basically dragged them to the playoffs and through the first round, not unlike Jet last year. He probably has a lower ceiling than either Jet or Elvis, but probably also has a higher floor. He rocked a 2.81 GAA and .896 SV% in 25 appearances last year.

Ilya Samsonov – Projected 1 year, $2 million AAV
Samsonov has worse stats than Allen or Lyon, but is also younger, and was briefly a starter in Toronto. He was 16-9-4 last year with the Golden Knights, but with a 2.82 GAA, .891 SV%, and just 1.61 goals saved above expected over the whole season. Still, probably the third best option.

James Reimer – Projected 1 year, $1.25 million AAV
Speaking of former Leafs goalies… James Reimer is available! He actually had decent stats with the Sabres last season, winning half his games and a roughly-average .896 SV%. And despite a 3.04 GAA, he did save 7.34 goals above expected, so with a better defense in front of him (we have a better defense than the Sabres, right?) he should be fine. And he’d likely clear waivers if needed, which is a plus in this environment.

Let us know who you want the Jackets to sign, if anyone. And feel free to use this as an open thread for this years’ Free Agent Frenzy!