UPDATE: The Columbus Blue Jackets well select at #6 and #12 in the draft. The only change in the draft was New Jersey moving up to #2, so neither of the Columbus picks dropped.
Time: 6:30PM ET
There are several potential scenarios that could play out for the Columbus Blue Jackets tonight. Their own pick has the 12th best odds to win a lottery pick, but they also own the Chicago Blackhawks’ pick. However, if the Blackhawks do win a top two spot, they retain that pick and the Blue Jackets then own their 2023 first round pick (unprotected). Did you get that? Me neither.
The most likely outcome is that the Blue Jackets stay at 12 and the Blackhawks’ pick slides to 7, with a 34.1% chance that the Blackhawks’ pick stays at 6.
Remember, the new rule this year is that a team cannot move up more than 10 spots. That means Columbus cannot win the number one pick. Apparently there may be an additional rule that changes the odds around a bit. If true, the Jackets cannot pick third, only second. There’s also a very very small chance that Columbus “wins” the lottery, defaults to second, and Chicago “wins” the second pick, sliding that pick to third. The result? The Blue Jackets picking second and third this summer. The problem is that the odds of that happening may be the same as winning the actual Powerball.
UPDATED— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) May 10, 2022
With the additional rule that only the first lottery winner is eligible for first overall, the probabilities instead look like this. This extra rule protects Montreal a little bit. pic.twitter.com/ZxPPCc2Isg
Head over to Tankathon to try your hand at the lottery. It took me 29 tries for Columbus to move up. Keep in mind that if the additional rule is true, the algorithm at Tankathon is off slightly.
Sound off in the comments below with all your opinions and analysis. Are you hoping Chicago wins the lottery? Would you rather have their 2022 pick? Is this all rigged anyway?