FanPost

Jackets likely to get hosed by new NHL Draft Rule / Odds





There have been lots of rumors, but I'd like to clear up just how badly the Jackets are likely to get screwed come draft time. The odds of "winning" the NHL Draft lottery have not changed for the 14 non-playoff teams, this year. That much we know is true. Check the link below for full odds from last year. However, what is changing is which teams can win the top overall pick. Last year (and in previous years) it was limited to the 5 worst teams. This was because "winning" the lottery meant a maximum move up in draft order of 4 positions, and draft order was just the reverse standings. So, 30th = 1st pick, 29th = 2nd pick and so on. If team 25 "won" the lottery, they would move up to 2nd overall and the 30th team would retain the top overall draft pick. The 29th team would slide to 3rd and so on. Now, the worst team, let's call them the Jackets, had a 25% chance of "winning" the lottery, which would give them the top pick. Because teams 6-14 were limited to moving up 4 spots (and...checking my math...nope, they could not get to #1 overall), the Jackets also picked up an additional 23.2% of the cumulative odds of teams 6-14 chances of winning the lottery, increasing their chances of landing the top overall pick to 48.2%. The change going into effect (and from my understanding, it's in effect for the 2013 Draft) is that any lottery team (aka non-playoff team) that "wins" the lottery will pick #1 overall. The limit of "sliding" back 1 spot of the reverse standings will stay in effect. The 30th place team will pick no worse than 2nd, 29th place team no worse than 3rd, and so on. So, last year, the Jackets had a 51.8% chance of NOT landing the top overall pick. This year, they are likely (assuming another 30th place finish) to have a 75% chance of not winning the top overall pick (The slide to 2nd overall still exists as a worst case scenario). The 30th place team, and the 30th place team only, stands to lose subtantial odds in this new rule change, if it is in fact how it plays out come June. That said, many have speculated here that 1st or 2nd won't matter with who the Jackets take, but that may depend on if another team gets the top pick, perhaps another organization with plenty of young blue line talent. The top pick lets JD and Jarmo choose whoever they want, or would be a better bargaining chip to trade back if they wanted to go that route. This is such a dumb rule change by the NHL and only one team will pay the price so that teams 6-14 have a chance to pick #1 overall. At the rate this season is going, the team getting hosed will be the Jackets. Screw you, Toronto. http://www.mynhldraft.com/2012-nhl-draft-lottery-odds/

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join The Cannon

You must be a member of The Cannon to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Cannon. You should read them.

Join The Cannon

You must be a member of The Cannon to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Cannon. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker