Not quite a year ago, there was a post in The Cannon for Columbus referencing predicted wins. The atricle was based on a post from Brent Lemon . His article was based on the work of Leonard Koppett relative to using statistics in sports to predict performance. At that time I was writing for Fire That Cannon and I wrote an article predicting the Blue Jackets final wins/points based on the provided formula. The numbers worked out surprisingly well. Now, having provides background and credits. Let's get to the point.
Using the suggested formula, I have tracking the Springfield Falcons.Everyone knows there is going o be a cataclysmic change in Springfield and in the whole AHL. Therefore I would like to publish the Predicted wins for the Falcons before this change just to see the effect on Springfield after the changes.
After 33 games the Falcons have 19 wins and 43 points. The AHL schedule is 76 games. The predicted wins is 49.85 or 50 games. I have not found a statistic for the number of games expected to go into overtime in the AHL. In the NHL this is 23%. So 23 % of the time both teams get points. Based on these numbers and applying them to the Falcons, the Falcons should get 105 points. [The Falcons will pick up 5 points in losses]It is my personal opinion that the Falcons have been in a bit of a tailspin, even though they do keep winning. Perhaps this is only relative to the terrific start they had, of perhaps it is because of injuries. [John Moore was one of the SOG leaders when he went down] So the stats are reflective of the YTD performance.
All bets should be off as the "super" AHL is demolished and and the AHL is reestablished. But I wanted to document where the Falcons were pre-cataclysmn. It will be great to see what players step up into the vacated slots. It seems to me that Coach Larson has been changing lines/assignments in preparation for this upheaval, so I do not think the Falcons will be lost in the AHL. It just remains to be seen where the talent level is relative to the remainder of the competition.