Jackets Stats: The Overly Simplified Goalie Problem
by zekebud on Feb 19, 2012 12:39 PM EST
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PrintIt's tough to look at the Columbus Blue Jackets right now. Statistically, they're continuing to deal with team-wide failure. Rick Nash only has the 77th highest point total in the NHL and is off his career average totals per game (certainly not inspiring to outside fans during Nash trade discussion). Overall, the team is 28th in goals for per game, as anemic production is not limited to the captain. Clearly the Jackets are in need of some serious offensive help if they hope to be future playoff contenders.
But lately, much of the focus has been on the goalie and the defense. Why should we look at them instead of the pathetic goal scoring? By doing an overly simplified thought experiment, we can look into why terrible goaltending is something that the rest of the team can't be expected to overcome.
In order to do this, let's set up some numbers. Steve Mason (as of this writing) has a season save percentage of .887. For his career, he's now at .903, a sizable dip from his Calder Trophy campaign. While it's not fully accurate to his performance this year, we'll assume he's got a .900 save percentage; that is to say, a goal would be scored in 1 out of every 10 shots against him (.887 would make the total slightly higher). Let's also consider the Jackets' shot totals. Currently, the Blue Jackets allow 30.1 shots against per game (that's the 14th fewest per game by a team in the NHL - a reasonable placement). Let's make it easier and say they allow exactly 30.
Now let's imagine a typical Blue Jackets game with the regular number of shots against, and Steve Mason in goal. 30 shots are allowed and 1 out of 10 shots is a goal. That's 3 goals against per game. 3 goals seems like quite a bit to allow to the other team every game. And that knee-jerk perception is correct.
Currently, only 6 teams in the NHL score more than 3 goals per game on average (actually up from 4 teams last year, and 5 teams the year before). Those teams are Philadelphia (3.31), Boston (3.27), Vancouver (3.16), Chicago (3.08), Detroit (3.05), and Pittsburgh (3.02). This kind of scoring helps explain why the Flyers and Blackhawks are in the playoff race despite their well-documented goalie problems. This also suggests part of why the Jackets can't win with Steve Mason in net - like most teams in the NHL over the past 3 seasons, they simply do not have the offense to keep up with an opposing team that scores 3 goals per game.
What would happen if we put a better goalie in net? Let's say that this year's version of Curtis Sanford is starting with his .915 save percentage. That would result in 2.55 goals against per game (on 30 shots). That's a pretty big difference in offense and is much more manageable. 18 out of 30 teams in the NHL are capable of that kind of scoring, so it's not uncommon. Improve the goalie by just that much and the Blue Jackets would be far more competitive. That's a part of why the Jackets have been more successful in front of Sanford. (And for laughs - if we put Henrik Lundqvist's .941 in net, that's only 1.77 goals against per game, something even this year's Blue Jackets could beat.)
Of course, this analysis is highly simplistic. It ignores the awful defense, and any psychological failures in front of Mason, something that most "better" goalies this year don't have to deal with. This also doesn't account for the Jackets pathetic goal scoring. Columbus would need a goalie with a .925 save percentage to get wins with their current offensive production. But the problem presented by Steve Mason is a real one - only 6 teams can be expected to keep up with the 3 typical goals his save percentage allows. Even with an improved offense, it would be very difficult for the Jackets to win when opposing teams are afforded such high goal totals. That's why goaltending is so heavily linked to the Columbus failures; with just one bad player in net, the whole team must suffer the consequences.
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The problem is, this is all meaningless as we dont know how Mason would do with better defense, or for your example, how Lundqvist would do with our defense. Obviously it would be better, but it wouldnt be anywhere near what it is right now with the Rangers.
Its impossible to compute what Masons numbers would be with an NHL caliber defense in front of him, just like it is impossible to compute what a new goalies numbers would be with our defense.
My biggest thing is: how do we know that a new goalie will help? Lets be logical and throw out a goalie that is actually reasonable to be a Blue Jackets. Lets say we get Bernier. And lets use his totals from last year because they are better and there is more data. He had a .913 SV% and a 2.48 GAA in his 25 gp. Those numbers are with a solid defense in front of him. Put him in front of the defense in Columbus and it probably goes down to at least .900 SV%.
Heres my point. .900 of Berner is still better than .887 SV% of Mason, but its not enough for a winning team at any rate. With a good defense, or even an average defense Mason’s stats would be at least .900 and lets say Berniers goes back up to the .913. This is why its frustrating to see people only blame the goalie. Our problems lie half with Mason, half with goalie. This is shown perfectly with Sanford. Sanford has put up respectful numbers (.915 SV%), and still has a bad record. Throw in good defense in front of him and its a completely different story.
We need a new goalie and we need more defense equally as much. If that means trading Nash and Carter, so be it. Build from the back end this time. Its easier to find forwards than it is to find defense and goaltending. I think its a must to get a good young goalie like has been widely talked about on here, but I think its also really important to get another great young goalie into the system. Subban would be nice, but we need some goaltending depth in the organization.
The record is a full team statistic. That absolutely true. If all parts (offense, defense and goalie) are working well, the record will reflect that. If even one thing isn’t working, the wins will not come. That said, wins and losses are a miserable way of discussing goalies. Goals against average is also a poor way to look at things, although it’s easier to digest. Those are team statistics coming from goals scored and shots allowed just as much as goalier performance.
Save percentage is one of the better ways to isolate the individual goalie. I’m going to reference one of my favorite goalies, Tomas Vokoun: his time in Florida was spent behind a defense that wasn’t that much better than what we’ve seen in Columbus. He also watched his team fail to score goals. Yet his save percentage was still .919, .926, .925, and .922 during 4 years with the Panthers. In all but one year, Backstrom has been doing similar things in Minnesota – their team not not been overly impressive either except for the goalie. The awful defense did not stop an actual quality netminder from doing his job.
If Mason were a truly good goalie, he would not have the kind of abysmal numbers he has shown over the past 3 seasons. It doesn’t matter what kind of defense he has in front of him. I concede that the bad defense doesn’t help, but a sustainable starting goalie just doesn’t have a .903 career save percentage.
Clearly there is more to do in fixing the team than simply finding a goalie. It’s pathetic when Brett Lebda is in your lineup long-term, and it’s a joke that nobody has 20 goals yet on the team. But when one position is causing such problems for the team, something that most teams couldn’t keep up with, I think it should be the first priority.
CCT, CBJ, SU, NYM, Bills Fan. It can be depressing.
Sometimes I tweet things
I think you missed my point a bit. I am in no way trying to say Mason is anything near a “good” goalie. Im simply stating his stats are also being hurt even more by an abysmal defense.
You use Vokoun, who is arguably one of the better and most reliable goalies in the world over that last decade, as an example of a goalie who has been good in front of a bad defense. Great example. Ill use Mike Smith as an example of an average goalie put in front of a great defense. Smith was put in front of a craptastic defense in TBL and had around a .900 SV% when with the Lightning as he spent most of his time in the AHL. He goes to the Yotes in the offseason, now tied for fourth in the entire NHL with a .928 SV%. You put a guy that sucks with bad defense and put him in front of a team with great defense and its a completely different story. I think this is also a similar case to Elliott who has the best SV% in the NHL. No one actually thinks he is the best goalie, but he is put in a situation that is beneficial because of the defense and overall system being run.
The other factor is the type of system being implemented. St Louis plays Hitch hockey that helps the goalies. Arniel played a system that screws the goalie. You get lots of odd man rushes against and it puts the goalie in a bad situation. Minus the crap on ice yesterday against the Hawks, Mason has a .906 SV% in his six games since Richards took over. Small sample, but an none the less an improvement.
My first priority is BOTH goaltending AND defense. We need a major upgrade in both, so lets make them both first priorities. Our goaltending is gonna suck for as long as our defense sucks and our defense is going to suck until we upgrade it. If we throw a top 15 goalie in the situation we have right now we will still be a horrible team. Probably not last in the NHL, but still bad. Same situation if we just upgrade our D and keep Mason.
There’s no point trying to argue with cbjfan14 about Mason. He just doesn’t seem to grasp that somehow a career backup named Curtis Sanford is posting better statistics behind the same “abysmal defense” that finds Mason with, last time I checked, next-to-last in the league in save percentage, and somewhere in that same area in goals-against-average.
But I completely agree with you, zekebud…“good” NHL goaltenders do not put up such miserable stats. In fact, most goaltenders with such stats as Mason had are out of the NHL at this point, or at least served a stint in the AHL in an attempt to try to gain their confidence back. I also understand that, even if Sanford were healthy and played in a few more games, we still would not be a playoff team. He was not made to be a #1 goaltender.
But playing Sanford a few more games IS the difference between where we are now, and at least a few more wins. And a few more wins can be the difference between a team that doesn’t care because they know they have nothing to play for, and a team that may give it their all because they still have an outside shot at the playoffs. But when your goaltender’s soft goals are a big reason why you’re out of the hunt in November, that can’t have a positive effect on the team.
Yes, I harp on Mason all the time, but it’s because Mason is a “team” problem. It’s obvious the team hates having him in net, and there’s no further proof than the fact Sanford has a reasonable .915 on the same miserable, defenseless team that finds Mason with AHL-quality numbers. Mason still doesn’t have double-digit wins (7) despite starting in five more games than Sanford, while the “backup” has 10 wins in 26 starts. Again, not a recipe for success, but clearly a recipe for more than 17 wins in February.
My negative bias for Mason only exists because I honestly believe the core of this team has the potential to reach the playoffs as-is…there’s no “nuclear” option necessary. For starters, I say we get a proven, #1 goaltender, get rid of Mase, and take it from there. I wouldn’t be surprised if the team’s confidence picks up, assuming said “proven” netminder plays as well as he would play on his own team. From there, we can have an honest assessment of team needs. Let’s be frank: Everyone looks like a suspect on defense when your goaltender lets in everything. Having a good goalie in the crease will strengthen the team right off the bat, AND show true flaws.
Get a good #1 in here this season, see how the team plays with him the rest of this year, and then make an assessment as to who the true defensive liabilities are in the offseason. I completely understand the defense needs an upgrade…there is no doubt about that. I’m just in agreement with Ville A…it’s not as much of a problem as everyone thinks. Right now, it seems people are favoring the nuclear option when in reality, all it probably needs are just a few tweaks.
by Toxichighway on Feb 19, 2012 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
I think we can all agree that we need serious upgrades in goal and defense. However, one stat that stands out to me is Sanford’s save percentage, .915 which is a pretty solid number. This indicates one of two things. He has either had an unbelievably good season, considering the bad defense in front of him, or the defense is not quite as bad as we think it is. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but from what I have seen from Sanford this year, he has been pretty good, but not great.
This tells me that Mason is more culpable for putting up bad goals against numbers than the defense in front of him. Either way, I completely agree that we have to re-build starting with goaltending and defense. I also think that having a better defense will really help our offensive numbers, not just in terms of the defensemen scoring goals, but in our transitioning game. This aspect of modern hockey is crucial in creating scoring chances and has a calming affect on the team as a whole. There has been talk about our need for shutdown defensemen, but I feel that we have an even greater need for good puckmoving defensemen.
Another thing that should not be underestimated in terms of defense is the forwards’ roles in helping out defensively. I often find myself thinking that a goal allowed is the direct result of one of the forwards blowing an assignment, or not pressuring the opposing team’s cycle enough etc. Arniel’s two-man forecheck didn’t help either, as the forwards spent all their energy chasing the puck in the offensive zone and were too tired to backcheck. There are just so many aspects that go into defending, but if you look at the simple goalie save percentage, I think we can expect much better goals against numbers with a better starting goalie in the future. Mason may not be the only problem, but he is the biggest problem.
Wiz-Moore
Tyutin-Johnson
Lebda-Savard
I think our defense is exactly as bad as we think it is. three of them should be in the AHL right now, Lebda in the ECHL.
I think we need a defensive defensemen more than anything. Wiz has shown to be a good puck moving defensemen. Nikitin is possibly the best passer on our team along with Wiz. Tyutin and Moore can do the job as well. Savard is still working on it. What we miss is a big bodied defensemen like Hejda that can help keep the puck out of the net and help our goalies.
“I think we can expect much better goals against numbers with a better starting goalie in the future”. No, we can expect better numbers, but not much better. Not with this defense anyway.
Just for the record, I am in complete agreement with you that we need to improve our defense, and that after upgrading our goaltending this should be our top priority. I think our disagreement is more a matter of how bad our defense is, and how it should be improved. Like I said, Sanford has managed to put up a decent save percentage, so the defense is at least good enough to give them a chance to win if the goalie plays his part. Mason’s numbers have been dysmal which makes it impossible to win.
With that said, the defense needs a serious upgrade and as I have said before it’s not a matter of getting a 6th or 7th defenseman for more depth, we have to get at least one true top pair defenseman. The reason I am saying that we need better puckmoving defensemen is that in my view the best teams in the league, like Detroit and Vancouver, are also the best passing teams and it starts with their d-men. These teams are so much better at turning defense in to offense than we are, and it takes so much pressure off of the goalie and team as a whole.
As far as the CBJ is concerned, Wiz is only okay as a puckmoving defenseman because his skating ability is only so so, and he causes too many turnovers. Nikitin is probably our best passer but also a bit slow footed. John Moore has a lot of potential but needs some more confidence to make offensive plays. Tuytin is our best all around defenseman but not great at anything. When I look at our defense as a whole, I truly think that we are one of the worst teams in the NHL in terms of puckmoving defenseman although with Nikitin, Moore and Savard there is some hope. That is not to say that we couldn’t also use a big bodied shutdown defenseman, but with Methot, Tyutin and Nikitin I think we are okay in that area and Moore has also shown promise in the defensive zone and is still growing. We are not good by any means, but better than has been suggested by some. It’ll be really interesting to see how Howson/Patrick upgrades the defense and goalie situation. I think that we can both agree that this is the key to the future of this team.
Having discussed this with others, it’s clear that the abysmal psychological breakdowns in front of Mason cause a two-way failure effect, and I can’t truly ignore that when taking a look at goalie troubles. Even if Mason is having a good game, the team looks terrified at the outset. Only after a few periods of sustained strong play from Mason does the team calm down.
But when one side fails, the whole thing collapses. If Mason gives up an easy goal, the team completely deflates and the game crashes. If the rest of the team gives up a dumb chance (easy cross-ice passes, breakaways, etc) and Mason can’t bail them out, then he caves into his own head and reverts to his poor play.
It’s another example of the team being weak overall… yet I don’t think we’d see this problem as often if the meltdown games were less common. Yes, it’s just one place to start, but it seems so much worse than the rest of the team and it causes everybody else to work that much harder to catch up. It’s an overly simplified analysis, but when the numbers are that poor, it’s easy to use.
CCT, CBJ, SU, NYM, Bills Fan. It can be depressing.
Sometimes I tweet things
The psychological aspect to Mason’s bad play and how the team responds is obviously more difficult to measure, but we have all seen it happen time and time again. The Chicago game was a perfect example of this. We should have led after the first period by at least one goal, but because our offense couldn’t capitalize and Mason let in a couple soft goals we were down 2-1. In the second we didn’t play as well as in the first but held on for most of the period until the third goal, which I don’t fault Mason for by the way, and then it looked like we simply gave up. Mason just doesn’t inspire any confidence and the whole team starts to panic when he lets in one or two that he probably should have had. The fact that our offense has been so anemic also doesn’t help. The whole team just looks like there is no way that they could overcome a two goal deficit or worse, and Dorsett fighting a 300 pound gorilla couldn’t change that fact. There are many issues with this team, but it all starts with goaltending.
I actually think we are all pretty much in agreement to most things. Both our goalies and our defense blow. We both agree that Mason needs to go, despite one person who for some reason seems to think I have some sort of man crush on Mason.
The only thing I disagreed with was that the majority think Mason is by far the biggest problem on the team, and I think its both Mason and the defense. As in they are both equally as bad. Which is a non issue as long as we all agree both defense and goalie need upgraded by next year.
Count me as one that wants to build from the back end this time. Get a great goalie and some good defensemen and go from there. Defense wins hockey games. Look at Nashville.
Fair enough, and I think your view has a legitimate argument. And it’s sad that we can have such a lengthy discussion as to what part of the team is really the worst. This season sucks.
CCT, CBJ, SU, NYM, Bills Fan. It can be depressing.
Sometimes I tweet things
Great discussion here – I’m moving this to the front page!
Editor for The Cannon - A Columbus Blue Jackets Blog
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This was some great stuff, from the article through the comments. Very interesting.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
Agreed! Enjoyed reading this.
Editor for The Cannon -- A Columbus Blue Jackets Blog
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by Andy Newman on Feb 22, 2012 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
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by frimas1123@gmail.com on Mar 1, 2012 5:05 AM EST reply actions
Clearly this sums everything up perfectly.
by Jay32600 on Mar 1, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
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