Now what, Blue Jackets?

by Andy Newman on Jan 10, 2012 8:01 AM EST

By now you know Scott Arniel has been fired and Todd Richards is taking over as interim head coach.

I think it was long overdue, but as Mike suggested yesterday, it's not all on Arniel. At any rate, Richards, who was let go as the Minnesota Wild head coach last season, will take over the 11-25-5 Jackets. I previously took a brief look at a few potential coaching candidates in Bob Hartley, Guy Carbonneau, and Marc Crawford.

Of course, Richards is going to do everything he can to make a case that he deserves the head coaching job next year and not someone else. We've seen this before - the Blue Jackets season all but over by the end of January, then sometime after the All-Star break they start playing well and beating teams they shouldn't. Ultimately, this results in the team playing just well enough to not draft one of the elite players in the draft. Even the year they drafted Rick Nash, they had to trade for the pick.

Outside of that year and the draft following the playoff season, the Jackets have drafted 4th overall three times, 6th overall three times, 7th overall once, and 8th overall twice. I'll leave the prospect analysis to Mike, but this year, the consensus No. 1 pick is Nail Yakupov. Outside of the top 3, the talent takes a bit of a drop off.

You never want to watch a team that loses on purpose, but some would argue that maybe that's what they've been doing for awhile now. This is largely the same group of players that seemed to quit on Ken Hitchcock half a season after making the playoffs.

I think the only right answer is to get the young talent on this team valuable ice time and whatever happens, happens. Give Ryan Johansen a shot on the top line and increased duties to John Moore. As soon as Mark Dekanich is healthy, let's see if he's an NHL goaltender. Now is his chance to make his case for being kept around after this season.

I'd like to see more of Tomas Kubalik, Matt Calvert, and Cam Atkinson. Calvert shined in the second half of last season, so maybe now is the perfect chance to see if he can continue that kind of play. And for goodness sake, let's see if Derick Brassard can play, because despite the mishandling by Arniel, I'm starting to think he still has something in him.

The team needs to know where they stand with every single player in the organization, and now is the time to figure it out. If they shouldn't be here or they're not good enough, get rid of them. If they have promise, see if they can elevate their game and take on an increased role.

But please, don't just sit around and let Sammy Pahlsson, Derek MacKenzie, or Jared Boll take minutes that would be better served with the future of this organization.

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My main qualm with how Brassard was handled was that he was essentially ignored. If Arniel didn’t like him, or didn’t feel his performance was “worthy” of belonging on this team (haha!), he should have at least traded him, instead of just confining him to the press box game after game. But I definitely think he’ll get more ice time with Richards behind the bench.

I’m just anxious to see how well Richards handles the lines, and individual ice times. My guess is, there will be more of a rhyme and a reason for changes now, instead of Arniel’s method of “guessing and praying”.

This change will do for a little while, but the next step should be getting rid of the perceived cancers in the locker room. Getting rid of Howson, in my opinion, should also be on the list somewhere, but if the atmosphere in the locker room is as bad as everyone says, no coach will be able to turn anything around here. And waiting until the trade deadline often drives prices up…Lord only knows we can’t afford to overpay any more than we already have.

Still, looking forward to tonight’s game, and to see how Richards does in his first game behind the bench.

by Toxichighway on Jan 10, 2012 8:40 AM EST reply actions

Was Nationwide built on the site of an old indian burial ground? It’s remarkable how the franchise continually finds ways to screw things up. The team has had how many coaches and still continues to flounder. Look at what Dineen has done with the team in Florida , Howson should be fired just for that. Wasn’t Brassard the guy that actually had a history with Arneil? As time goes by you find fewer people even caring about the team,about what happens behind the bench, on the ice, in the press. Somebody has to be the worst, I guess that’s destined to be the BlueJackets.

yeah, I used to play

by Gloveside on Jan 10, 2012 10:32 AM EST reply actions

Look at what Dineen has done with the team in Florida , Howson should be fired just for that.

With the score tied, Dineen’s team gets 51.81% of all Fenwick events (goals, shots on goal, missed shots) while Arniel’s got 51.27%. The two teams rank 11th and 12th in the NHL in that category, ahead of Dallas, Phoenix, NY Rangers, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Toronto, Montreal, Nashville, Minnesota, and a lot of other teams.

With the score close (within one goal in the first two periods or tied in the third), Arniel’s club got 50.96% of all Fenwick events compared to 50.72% for Dineen’s club. That puts the Blue Jackets 11th in the NHL.

It isn’t just shots (or "shot quality) either since Columbus scores 2.64 goals per 60 minutes with the score tied, Florida 2.00. With the score close, Columbus scores 2.16 goals while Florida scores 1.69.

What’s the difference between those two clubs?

With the score close, Columbus gives up 2.83 goals per 60 compared to Florida’s 1.97.
At 5-on-4, the Panthers score an additional 1.5 goals per sixty minutes than the Blue Jackets.
At 4-on-5, the Blue Jackets give up an additional 3.3 goals per sixty minutes than the Panthers.

At 5-on-5, Arniel’s team is just as good as Dineen’s team.

The Blue Jackets’ problem is Steve Mason. Not Howson, not Arniel. They built and managed an 18-man team that is just as good as the Panthers, but they have the worst goaltending in the league.

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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 10, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Florida, 42 games played, 50points, currently leading the Southeast , 3RD in the conference. Columbus, well, you probably know. Stats can be made to say anything, in the end it’s points and CBJ currently have 27 of a possible 82.

yeah, I used to play

by Gloveside on Jan 10, 2012 2:04 PM EST reply actions

So the Minnesota Wild are just going through a slump and will return to the top of the Western Conference shortly?

I get that points are what matters for the playoffs, but if you don’t care to look at how teams get those points (or lose those points), what do you know about the team? You know they don’t get points, but you have no idea why. And since you don’t know why, you don’t know who’s to blame.

It has been repeatedly shown that the best predictor for how many points a team will get going forward is not points obtained previously, it’s Fenwick. Which is what I just provided you with.

Scott Arniel’s team was as good at controlling play and better at scoring while at even strength than Kevin Dineen’s team. The difference is Steve Mason/Jose Theodore, but you aren’t directing blame at Steve Mason or saying “Look what Jose Theodore has done in Florida.”

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 10, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

Ha! I only come on here to direct blame at Steve Mason (usually). He’s completely worthless to this team. But you know what? You said Howson is not part of the Jackets’ problem. Yet Howson’s the one that put faith in Mason and kept him on the team this year, even though he’s been nothing but terrible the last two seasons.

That in and of itself should be enough to get Howson the axe. He overlooked the most glaring, obvious error on the entire squad.

But your main point, I no doubt agree with. Mason still doesn’t have as many wins as Sanford (a career backup who hasn’t played in the NHL the last two seasons) despite starting in 8 more games, and he’s .001 from the worst save percentage in the league. Sanford, on the other hand, is posting respectable numbers behind the same bad team. I still think there are lots of other problems here, but on the ice, they all start with Mason.

by Toxichighway on Jan 10, 2012 6:18 PM EST up reply actions

Well, they don’t ALL start with Mason, but that’s the position that needs the most attention, in my opinion.

by Toxichighway on Jan 10, 2012 6:19 PM EST up reply actions

Howson had a backup plan: Mark Dekanich. The contract extension for Mason was atrocious, and you can argue that they should have signed Theodore, but you can also argue they needed to show confidence in a goalie who clearly lacks confidence.

Arniel should have been fired months ago, but not because his team was bad. He should have been fired for failing to hold a lead, failing to play Sanford more, and for simply coaching a team that wasn’t winning. But his team was top-12 in controlling play with the score tied, suggesting he has a good 5-on-5 system.

There’s a difference between being part of the solution – which he clearly wasn’t – being part of the problem – which he was, just like everyone in the organization – and being the problem- which he wasn’t.

I guess my unfamiliarity with your comments is the biggest problem here, but suggesting Dineen is what Arniel should be judged upon looks favorably upon Arniel.

But yes, Arniel should have been fired awhile ago. And Howson should be blamed for giving Mason that contract.

Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor

by Geoff Detweiler on Jan 10, 2012 8:17 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

He should have been fired for failing to hold a lead, failing to play Sanford more, and for simply coaching a team that wasn’t winning.

Can’t say I disagree with any of this. Mason may have plummeted off the deep end and Sanford is probably at least average. Also, re: failing to hold a lead, check out the shell that Columbus seems to go into both up 1 and up 2. With their goaltending, there’s no way that’s a recipe for success. I will say, however, that Arniel was very unlucky both at 5-on-5 and on the PP, so he definitely doesn’t deserve all of the heat he may be getting.

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by Chase W on Jan 11, 2012 5:04 PM EST reply actions

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