Scoring Chances To Date & Top Line Expectations

As we continue working on tracking scoring chances, I was reached out to by The Coach of Carry The Flag to see if I wanted some help with crunching the combined numbers. 

What we found was interesting, so I decided to share, and in addition, I thought I'd offer up a comparison of some of Columbus' top line talent vs. the work done by other teams.

Combined Scoring Chances

First, don't freak out about the size of this chart. It breaks down into three major categories: Even Strength, Power Play, and Shorthanded. 

the "TOI" columns are the player's total time on ice for the season so far (Hours:Minutes:Seconds), and the +/- columns are their scoring chances for and against divided against the TOI, with the "DIFF" field showing the total differential. 

# Player
GP EV+ EV- EV DIFF ESTOI EV+RT EV-RT ESRT DIFF PP+ PP- PP DIFF PPTOI PP+RT PP-RT PPRT DIFF SH+ SH- SH DIFF SHTOI SH+RT SH-RT SHRT DIFF
2 R. MARTINEK 7 31 32 -1 1:53:24 393.65 406.35 -12.7 2 0 2 0:03:40 785.45 0 785.45 0 11 -11 0:18:58 0 835.15 -835.15
3 M. METHOT 6 29 18 11 1:32:24 451.95 280.52 171.43 1 0 1 0:00:36 2,400.00 0 2,400.00 1 14 -13 0:18:20 78.55 1,099.64 -1,021.09
4 J. MOORE
5 8 11 -3 0:58:49 195.86 269.31 -73.45 0 0 0 0:00:02 0 0 0 2 5 -3 0:07:13 399.08 997.69 -598.61
5 A. JOHNSON 8 46 31 15 2:00:52 548.04 369.33 178.71 3 0 3 0:06:40 648 0 648 2 10 -8 0:11:05 259.85 1,299.25 -1,039.40
7 J. CARTER
5 29 23 6 1:13:14 570.23 452.25 117.98 19 3 16 0:24:15 1,128.25 178.14 950.1 0 1 -1 0:02:11 0 659.54 -659.54
8 M. MAYOROV 8 16 15 1 1:27:05 264.57 248.04 16.54 1 0 1 0:00:14 6,171.43 0 6,171.43 0 2 -2 0:01:53 0 1,529.20 -1,529.20
10 K. RUSSELL 11 56 42 14 2:36:39 514.78 386.08 128.69 14 1 13 0:37:27 538.32 38.45 499.87 0 1 -1 0:01:42 0 847.06 -847.06
11 M. CALVERT 7 16 15 1 1:02:29 368.74 345.69 23.05 0 0 0 0:00:08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0:00:00 0 0 0
13 C. ATKINSON 4 11 16 -5 0:43:54 360.82 524.83 -164.01 3 0 3 0:11:15 384 0 384 0 0 0 0:00:00 0 0 0
14 G. CLITSOME 12 49 50 -1 3:22:34 348.33 355.44 -7.11 23 5 18 0:46:49 707.44 153.79 553.65 3 8 -5 0:16:36 260.24 693.98 -433.73
15 D. DORSETT 12 22 24 -2 2:01:27 260.85 284.56 -23.71 0 0 0 0:00:37 0 0 0 1 14 -13 0:20:55 68.84 963.82 -894.98
16 D. BRASSARD 12 32 37 -5 2:16:21 337.95 390.76 -52.81 15 3 12 0:37:43 572.69 114.54 458.15 0 0 0 0:00:01 0 0 0
18 R. UMBERGER 12 54 47 7 2:51:21 453.81 394.98 58.83 17 1 16 0:43:15 566.01 33.29 532.72 2 9 -7 0:14:00 205.71 925.71 -720
19 R. JOHANSEN 9 28 26 2 1:34:05 428.56 397.95 30.61 7 0 7 0:11:55 845.87 0 845.87 0 0 0 0:00:00 0 0 0
21 J. WISNIEWSKI 4 13 22 -9 1:20:05 233.76 395.59 -161.83 7 0 7 0:22:22 450.67 0 450.67 0 1 -5 0:10:09 0 141.87 -141.87
22 V. PROSPAL 12 64 42 22 2:48:09 548.08 359.68 188.4 29 5 24 0:55:14 756.07 130.36 625.71 0 0 0 0:00:06 0 0 0
24 D. MACKENZIE 12 21 18 3 1:35:48 315.66 270.56 45.09 0 0 0 0:01:19 0 0 0 4 11 -7 0:20:31 280.75 772.06 -491.31
26 S. PAHLSSON 12 28 31 -3 2:19:58 288.07 318.93 -30.86 1 0 1 0:01:15 1,152.00 0 1,152.00 1 15 -14 0:26:48 53.73 805.97 -752.24
28 A. GIROUX 8 28 20 8 1:21:18 495.94 354.24 141.7 7 1 6 0:18:21 549.32 78.47 470.84 0 0 0 0:00:00 0 0 0
32 C. BASS
7 11 15 -4 1:00:42 260.96 355.85 -94.89 1 0 1 0:00:39 2,215.38 0 2,215.38 1 4 -3 0:07:07 202.34 809.37 -607.03
50 A. VERMETTE 12 55 40 15 2:50:36 464.24 337.63 126.61 18 1 17 0:42:39 607.74 33.76 573.97 1 15 -14 0:18:26 78.12 1,171.79 -1,093.67
51 F. TYUTIN
12 50 59 -9 3:32:31 338.8 399.78 -60.98 26 4 22 0:55:56 669.37 102.98 566.39 2 18 -16 0:29:56 96.21 865.92 -769.71
58 D. SAVARD 7 25 17 8 1:28:39 406.09 276.14 129.95 16 1 15 0:24:40 934.05 58.38 875.68 0 0 0 0:01:15 0 0 0
61 R. NASH
12 65 48 17 2:57:03 528.66 390.4 138.27 30 5 25 0:55:44 775.12 129.19 645.93 0 3 -3 0:05:16 0 820.25 -820.25








390.77 356.87 33.9



952.38 43.81 908.58



82.64 634.93 -552.29

 

 

Despite the arguments about returning Cam Atkinson to junior, you can see part of the coaching staff's reasoning when you consider his clear struggles at even strength despite receiving decent, if not exceptional ice time, and it's impressive just how much Jeff Carter was dominating on power play scoring advantages despite having only seen 5 games. 

Looking at the top line, Rick Nash stands out, but Vinny Prospal seems truly dominant - it's no surprise that he's been leading the team in scoring with these kind of numbers, but Antoine Vermette's failure to convert becomes more and more puzzling.

Outside Comparisons

To put the scoring chance opportunities in some perspective, I asked other bloggers taking part in the scoring chance project if they had complied total stats for their teams and how the top lines performed at even strength. A few were able to respond and give me detailed info - here's what we found:

Ovechkin N/A N/A 3
Backstrom N/A N/A 2
Brouwer N/A N/A 2




Nash 65 48 17
Prospal 64 42 22
Carter 29 23 6
Brassard 32 37 -5
MacKenzie 21 18 3
Vermette 55 40 15




Hartnell 21 13 8
Giroux 57 35 22
Jagr 55 31 24
JVR 27 14 13




Stepan 28 31 -3
Richard 39 39 -2
Gaborik 35 34 1








Plekanec 38 31 7
Pacioretty 42 37 5
Gionta 35 45 -10

Suddenly, the struggles for the New York Rangers make a lot more sense, though it must be said that all three are doing far better on the power play. Compared to the Capitals and Canadiens, the Jackets' top line is notably stronger at even strength, and even against the Flyers it would seem that they're doing an equal or better job of creating opportunities, but there's clearly work to be done in preventing opposing chances.

If, especially once Carter returns, the top line can continue producing while improving against opponents, don't be surprised to see a serious scoring boom, and a strong chance of increased Ws as a result.

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