A Look Ahead at the 2012 NHL Entry Draft
If you would have asked me this past summer when I would be starting the draft discussion, there's no way I would have said November. Though the Jackets have been playing better of late, they are still in 30th place in the league, and currently have the best shot at the first overall pick in the 2012 Draft.
With some help from Chris Ralph at The Hockey Writers, I'm going to look at some of the players who could see their name called at the podium by GM Scott Howson in June.
Personally, I think the Jackets' most glaring need is on the back-end, and luckily for the Jackets there are a handful of great young defensemen available. That said, there is one forward who sits atop most of the early draft lists, but there a handful of reasons why Columbus may avoid drafting him.
At this point of the season, many scouts and draft analysts have Sarnia Sting forward Nail Yakupov atop their lists. It's hard not to get excited about the kid, just take a look at Chris' breakdown of him, including this gem:The feisty, dynamic, explosive right-winger who possesses a heat-seeking one-timer (1:00 mark of video) is simply electrifying with the ability to cause a jaw-dropping reaction to all those watching his super array of skills. He is destined to become one of the true must-see players around the league. Fans in hockey cities everywhere will be circling the dates when Yakupov comes to town when he is inevitably donning NHL battle colours.
From a Columbus perspective, there are some red flags, however. The Jackets have drafted Russians twice in the first round- first Nikolay Zherdev in 2003 and then Nikita Filatov in 2008. Both have been extremely disappointing. Neither are currently in the NHL, and both players were the source of many off-the-ice headaches for the Jackets. Both players were eventually traded by Columbus, Zherdev to the Rangers for blueline stalwart Fedor Tyutin, and Filatov to Ottawa for prospect T.J. Tynan, who currently leads the nation in scoring as a sophomore at Notre Dame.
Yakupov differs from those two in that he's already in North America. Zherdev and Filatov were still playing in Russia when they were taken in the NHL draft. Yakupov was the second overall pick in the CHL Import Draft two years ago, and is committed to playing in the NHL.
Another red flag, and it's not really a knock on Yakupov, is that the Jackets have major needs elsewhere on the roster. Namely on defense and in goal. The Columbus blueline is severely lacking in terms of high-end skill, Former first round pick John Moore has played a bulk of the season with the Jackets, leaving only David Savard as a blue-chip defense prospect not on the main roster.
If the Jackets should decide to draft a blueliner, there are four players that I have my eye on- Mathew Dumba of the Red Deer Rebels, Ryan Murray of the Everett Silvertips, Jacob Trouba of the USNTDP and Morgan Reilly of the Moose Jaw Warriors.
Here's a quick breakdown of each player:
Mathew Dumba
Red Deer Rebels (WHL)
6-0, 173
Shoots: Right
2011/2012 Stats: 22GP / 7G / 11A / 18PTS / +8 / 29PIM
2010/2011 Stats: 62GP / 15G / 11A / 26PTS / +24 / 83PIM
Scouting Report from Dan Sallows
Dumba is known for both his offensive ability and his physical play. He's got it all in terms of skill, and would be a great addition to the Jackets. He can run a powerplay, and keep opposition forwards in-check. He reminds me of James Wisniewski in that he can follow up a goal with a big hit. He isn't the biggest defenseman out there, but he makes up for that with his offense and mean-streak.
Ryan Murray
Everett Silvertips (WHL)
6-1, 195
Shoots: Left
2011/2012 Stats: 10GP / 3G / 3A / 6PTS / -4 / 15PIM
2010/2011 Stats: 70GP / 6G / 40A / 46PTS / +18 / 45PIM
TSR Draft Rankings, see Number Four for Murray
Murray has seemingly been around for a while. He was named captain of the Silvertips at a young age, so his leadership abilities aren't in question. He's currently out of the lineup with an ankle injury, but nonetheless he projects to be a steady defenseman, who contributes in all zones. He won't put up as much offense as Dumba, but he has the potential to be a future captain and shutdown defenseman. He's also considered to be the most NHL-ready of the blueline prospects available.
Jacob Trouba
USNTDP
6-1, 183
Shoots: Right
2011/2012 Stats: 4GP / 0G / 1A / 1PTS / -1 / 8PIM
2010/2011 Stats: 31GP / 3G / 4A / 7PTS / -2 / 31PIM
Hockey News Prospect Watch
While Trouba doesn't have the polish of his draft-mates, he nonetheless has above-average puck-moving ability and doesn't shy away from physical play. He's likely going the college route, so that gives the team that drafts him two extra years of development, which Trouba will need to become a full-time NHLer.
Morgan Rielly
Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)
6-0, 197
Shoots: Left
2011/2012 Stats: 17GP / 3G / 15A / 18PTS / +6 / 2PIM
2010/2011 Stats: 65GP / 6G / 22A / 28PTS / -15 / 21PIM
Hockey News Prospect Watch
Rielly was off to a great start this season before suffering a torn ACL, and is likely out for the season. This shouldn't affect his draft status though, as Rielly remains a high-end offensive weapon from the back end. Like Dumba, he brings a scoring element, though he isn't as physical.
These four blueliners are just a taste of what the 2012 draft has to offer on defense. While most, if not all teams will have Yakupov ranked first, Columbus needs to add one of these elite talents to their future blueline. If the Jackets remain the league's worst team, and end up with the first overall pick, trading down to the second or third overall slot could be in the cards. Dropping down to draft a blueliner could fetch the Jackets an extra first rounder later in the draft, or a package of second rounders and prospects.
As it stands now, the only team with multiple first round picks is the Washington Capitals, as they picked up the extra first rounder from Colorado in the Semyon Varlamov trade. If Colorado continues to struggle, they could be in the mix for a top-five pick. A potential trade could see the Jackets trade the first overall pick to the Caps for both of their first rounders (Washington's pick will likely be in the bottom third of the round), at which point the Caps would add Yakupov to their stable of young Russians. He'd be an obvious replacement for the underachieving and frustrating Alexander Semin. The Jackets would come away with a high-end blueliner, and a forward later in the first round such as Brenden Gaunce of Belleville, Martin Frk of Halifax or Pontus Aberg of Djurgarden. The Jackets could also use that later pick on a goaltender, perhaps Belleville's Malcolm Subban, younger brother of Montreal's P.K. Subban.
I really wish I didn't have to talk draft this early in the season, but the Jackets could use the boost of talent in their system, and the 2012 draft is primed to be one of the best ever, especially for blueliners.
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If we have top pick in the draft, we absolutely
Have to pick best player available. If that’s yakupov, take him. Yes defense is most glaring need, but you can’t draft off position. Plus, if we do indeed draft a defenseman, he won’t be ready for a few years most likely. By then, who knows what we will need.
Also would like to add, just read yakupov is injured. Hopefully not a concussion.
by cbjfan14 on Nov 22, 2011 12:50 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I agree...
What if the Caps had decided in 2004 that they needed defense more and traded down to #3 to take Cam Barker while passing on Ovie?
Writer for The Cannon - A Columbus Blue Jackets blog
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"I will say anything to be funny, often in the most horrible situations, which is one reason [a] good [woman] so far [has] been very sorry on occasion to have married me." --Kurt Vonnegut, Jr.
Are you saying that Yakupov = Ovechkin?
Follow me on Twitter! Mike MacLean
Manager of The Cannon, a Columbus Blue Jackets Blog
by Mike MacLean on Nov 22, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
Even if he’s not, he’s clearly the best player in this draft. You don’t skip out on guys like that.
To use another example, do you think Florida is glad they traded the Rick Nash pick?
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Nov 22, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
Not saying that, Mike. Saying Ovie was the best player in his draft. Barker was the best defenseman. They aren’t even in the same ballpark anymore. I believe that you always take the best player available.
Writer for The Cannon - A Columbus Blue Jackets blog
Follow me on Twitter
"I will say anything to be funny, often in the most horrible situations, which is one reason [a] good [woman] so far [has] been very sorry on occasion to have married me." --Kurt Vonnegut, Jr.
When FLA had their version of Bouwmeester, they probably didn’t complain too much. Not sure now.
Writer for The Cannon - A Columbus Blue Jackets blog
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"I will say anything to be funny, often in the most horrible situations, which is one reason [a] good [woman] so far [has] been very sorry on occasion to have married me." --Kurt Vonnegut, Jr.
Even ignoring what team he’s on, do you think Florida would rather have Rick Nash right now or Jay Bouwmeester?
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Nov 22, 2011 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
With a talent like yakupov you don’t pass him up. If need be trade away a forward for a d man. However keep in mind that both huseilious and prospal are ufas next year so forward might be a need for the team after all. I could picture a lie of nash Carter yakupov while keeping umberger letetstu johanson or even bumping umberger down to the third line with vermette if prospal returns next year.
by FFmorgan89 on Nov 22, 2011 5:16 PM EST via mobile reply actions
And who knows maybe Columbus can squeeze a late first for brassard. Or even package him in a deal for a high first round pick.
by FFmorgan89 on Nov 22, 2011 5:17 PM EST via mobile reply actions
i dont think were gonna end up with the top pick
without mason you can see the talent of this team play confidently and move out of the basement of the league.
So lets say we have second pick. What do you do then? Pick d man or go with Grigorenko or whoever is number two at that point? I go for whoever is best player still, forward or defense.
Agreed. You always go BPA. Players take time to develop, so your positions of need are going to be totally different when they make it to the NHL. Look at Johansen as a prime example. When we drafted him center was a major need, now we’ve got him playing wing because we’re set down the middle, and he only took a year to get here.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Nov 23, 2011 8:34 AM EST up reply actions
Interesting, I thought there would be a more even distribution among the usual draft arguments, BPA or Need. I look at it this way- elite blueliners are the most difficult assets to acquire. You don’t often end up with a draft like this one that projects to have so many high-end defensemen available.
The dearth of skill on Columbus’ blueline is crystal clear. Yes, Yakupov is the best player in the draft, but that still does nothing for the future of the defense.
Saying something like “you can always trade for a defenseman later” just doesn’t work. It’s extraordinarily difficult to acquire defensemen in a trade.
If Columbus’ defense pipeline wasn’t so in need of skill, Yakupov would be the easy choice.
Follow me on Twitter! Mike MacLean
Manager of The Cannon, a Columbus Blue Jackets Blog
“elite blueliners are the most difficult assets to acquire”
The thing is that only two elite talents are available in this draft and both of them are forwards (Yakupov and Grigorenko). No way can you pass up on an elite forward to get a very good defenseman.
“It’s extraordinarily difficult to acquire defensemen in a trade”
While true historically for the Blue Jackets, the problem is they have never had a wealth of assets to trade away to acquire a high end defenseman. If the Jackets pick Yakupov or Grigorenko, they will have a couple of very good top six forwards that could easily be traded, something they have never had. If they had a Devin Setoguchi to trade away last summer, they could have had Brent Burns. To flat outright say its difficult to acquire a defenseman, is true but there are also half as many d-men in the NHL as forwards. Of course its going to be more difficult to acquire one. But there are much fewer truly elite talents in the NHL and they are much more difficult to acquire than a good defenseman.
Further, looking at the Jackets prospects, they are strong on defense. John Moore and David Savard both have top pairing potential and at the least are going to be top four defensemen. Cody Goloubef and Will Weber are also likely to be NHLers in the next couple years. While none of those players are Shea Weber-esque number one defensemen, neither are any of the guys available in this draft class. If someone like that was available, of course he’s the pick.
Its easier to acquire a top defensemen when you have more talent up front to trade for one. IF Yakupov becomes an Ovechkin, that makes someone like Nash or Carter expendable. Nash or Carter could probably bring in more talent than the defensive draft pick we select and we have his talents faster.
You have to pick best available player in the draft. You cant afford to pick by position
I would agree with you if the top two end up not being so clear-cut and only forwards. A team simply cannot pass up on the best player in a draft, if given the chance to pick him up. Franchise talent in general is very difficult to get (forwards or defense), and if only two players are viewed to be that good, then they should be the first to go. Even trading the pick should be done carefully – I’d want to see a real ransom before watching a team give up a chance to get a Kane/Stamkos/Tavares/Hall type of forward. 1st and 2nd picks are very often those that change teams.
And I think another important consideration is exactly where Columbus ends up in the draft and who is left at that point. It’s all a relative sort of thing in drafting the “best player available” once you move beyond the obvious top tier. If the Jackets manage to be better through the rest of the year and end up with a “higher” draft pick, then the exact definition of Best Available depends on what the scouting has revealed. Perhaps then a “reach” for a defenseman would be appropriate – provided that the team isn’t passing up on a significantly better player to do so.
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