Does Columbus Need A First Line Center? Or Do We Already Have One?

If you look at previews, evaluations, and wish lists for the Blue Jackets over the past few years, there's a certain theme:

"Columbus needs a real First Line Center."

"Columbus needs a true center to play with Rick Nash."

"Columbus is weak down the middle - they don't really have a top line center."

From the most professional scouting reports to the bleacheriest blog on the Bleacher Report, almost everyone you ask says Columbus lacks a "real" first line center. 

But what does that mean, exactly? 

More to the point, if we can figure out what a "real" first line center is, what are the chances that the man currently in the post, Antoine Vermette, can become one, rather than the team going out on the trading block or hoping for a prospect like Ryan Johansen to suddenly sprout into one? (Sorry, Derick Brassard fans - until he shows me something more, I am assuming his ceiling is going to be a good second line guy.)

Can you define what "is" is?

First off, we need to figure out what a First Line Center is. To help with that question, I went to the other SBNation hockey bloggers and asked them a simple question:

"When I say 'A Real First Line Center', who comes to mind?"

The answers I got were interesting, to say the least. Here's the list:

• Pavel Datsyuk
• Sidney Crosby
• Nicklas Backstrom
• Joe Thornton
• Henrik Sedin
• Stephen Weiss
• Mike Richards
• Vincent Lecavalier
• Marc Savard
• Jonathan Toews
• Anze Kopitar
• Jason Spezza

So, as the joke goes, what do those guys have that we don't? I decided to look at each player's stats for the past two years - that way we can take into account things like Marc Savard's head being reduced into pudding for much of the past year that tend to skew someone's stats.

2008-2009

*62 games w/ OTT, 17 w/ CBJ

2009-2010

Looking at these, I think it's tempting to say that point production is what defines a first line center, but if that's the case, Vermette would already be in the conversation, as his point production, particularly since moving to Columbus, isn't that different from some of these examples. Admittedly, he isn't breaking the high end of the curve like a Crosby or a Backstrom, but his 65 points last season were still quite respectable compared to guys like Mike Richards, Toews, or even Datsyuk. 

If we look at time on ice, again, Vermette's 20:09 is perfectly reasonable - most of the first liners seem to average between 19-21 minutes a night.

Shots on goal? Possibly - I don't think it's a coincidence that so many of these players record over 200 shots on goal a season. There are exceptions (Joe Thornton's shot totals are surprisingly low), but it would seem the first liner should be willing to shoot as often as pass. Interestingly, though, Vermette's actual scoring percentage last year (17.3) was one of the best of the group. Clearly he knows where to place his shots when he takes them. Hopefully the new coaching staff will recognize this and encourage Antoine to shoot more frequently. 

Assists are another key stat that seems to define a first line player. In fact, nearly every person who gave me their opinion said that one of the major roles of a top line center is to set up the guys on his line. By that logic, he should always have more assists than goals. The numbers seem to agree with this - the only players to get close, or even pull even, were Sidney Crosby, Mike Richards, and Stephen Weiss. The others all had around half again more assists than goals. Vermette was close in this category - if he'd scored three or four more assists he'd have it sewn up. 

Faceoffs were the final stat that virtually everyone agreed with. To borrow from the response I got from Cassie McClellan of Raw Charge: 

If a center can't take faceoffs, but is still racking up the minutes and the points, that invalidates him as a true first line center for me.  The whole point of being a center is taking faceoffs and setting up your wingers for shots, and if you can't at least do that, then you're not really playing the position as its intended.

Using that logic, though, there are a lot of players on this list who need to brush up on their skills. I was surprised that most hang around the 50% mark in the faceoff dot - and several were below that bar. Again, however, Vermette puts in a good showing. We knew when he was acquired he was a skilled faceoff man (in fact, he was 3rd overall in the league at faceoffs in 2008-2009), but I wouldn't have expected him to still outdraw players like Sedin and Thornton even in a "down" year.

There's one last area we haven't touched on in the initial discussion that needs to be brought up: The Power Play.

Here's where Vermette really seems to take a step back. While his 6 power play goals are fairly solid, he had the least PPA of the group, only accounting for 6 setups with the man advantage. Most of these first line talents tend to bring in at least 18. This is, admittedly, a stat that depends as much on his teammates as it does himself, but it's certainly an area where he could bear to step up. 

On the other hand...

As we got into this discussion, noted stats addict Derek Zona from over at The Copper & Blue brought up a different argument: it's not about a "first line", or any line, but about the type of minutes a player sees. To that effect, he pointed me at this article about forwards who see the "Toughest" minutes - playing against the opponent's top lines and being able to outscore that competition.

If we use that logic, we still see a few repeats - Weiss, Datsuyk, Mike Richards, but we also see guys like Mikko Koivu, Eric Staal, RJ Umberger and Sammy Pahlsson. Interesting, but I have to admit I'm not totally sold on this being the real bellwether.

Derek clarified his position a bit by saying "Any center that is among the team lead in scoring while playing toughs is a "first-line center" for me, I guess.  If you've got a center that can't play the toughs, you've got a second-minutes center. "

This, I think, I can agree with. So, where did Vermette come in for the Jackets? According to the NHL Advanced Statistics page over at Behind The Net for the 2009-2010 season? Pretty well. (Warning: You should probably go read this FAQ if you're not familiar with the stats pages over at BtN.)

That puts him at #9 on the team for over all quality of competition, and 5th among forwards. Considering that two of the other forwards ahead of him are his normal line mates of Rick Nash and Kristian Huselius, I'd say that he satisfies the competition portion. Vermette's 65 points were also second overall on the team for scoring, and his 27 goals were second on the team behind Rick Nash. 

Looking at Qualcomp numbers for some of the other top line players we've mentioned, though, Vermette (and the Blue Jackets as a whole) do need to improve - while it would be difficult to expect the team to meet Mike Richard's .109 QualComp, Spezza, Lecavalier, Backstrom, Thornton, Crosby, and Weiss are all above a .060. (Though I was surprised to find that Datsyuk was only a .021, Kopitar a .016 and Henrik Sedin actually recorded a -.013!)

I think it's safe to say Vermette isn't terrible here, but he could be better - and so could the rest of the Blue Jackets. This is also a stat where, with the exception of Weiss, we're comparing players on playoff teams to a player on a lottery team. If the team's on-ice performance improves next season, it may be worth revisiting this stat to see how he compares against the group again.

So, what do we have?

Going through these stats, what I believe we've settled on in defining a first line center is that he is a player who is solid in the face off circle, will be a top point producer on his team, particularly with the man advantage, should be scoring more assists than goals, and should be on the ice playing effectively against his opponent's best players

Using that argument, I believe that Antoine Vermette is much closer to becoming a first line center than CBJ fans,and the hockey world in general, have given him credit for.  While he does have areas that need some clear improvement, in most of the major categories he has already met or exceeded the criteria, and gives a good accounting of himself when compared to his peers. 

We've said before that this is a big year for Vermette. Dark Blue Jacket has also produced a great piece on how Vermette has been leading the team in "Clutch" and "Pace setting" goals, and how he needs to step up his game. We draw some of the same conclusions, and we differ in a few others, but the underlying tone is that Vermette could become a player equal to the caliber of his superstar linemate and Captain with just a few (relatively) small improvements to his game. 

I believe that if he can rise to this challenge, we'll stop asking when Columbus will get a "real" top line center, because he'll make it crystal clear to the entire NHL that they already have one.